Races · house · 2022 · Florida
house · open seat
Jared Moskowitz vs Joe Budd
Where this race stands
VerifiedTilt D · model 95% D
No recent polls or markets for this race. PVI baseline (D+2) suggests Tilt D.
The poliagg-v34 ensemble forecasts D+9.8 with an 80% CI ranging from R+2.2 (10th pctile) to D+21.8 (90th pctile), giving D a 95% chance of winning.
CITATIONS · tilt-d
Forecast · poliagg-v34
Predicted final margin
D +9.8
80% CI: R +2.2 → D +21.8 · win prob 95%
R+30R+15TIEDD+15D+30
Quality · inputs
Data quality · medium
| Polls used | 0 |
| Days to election | passed |
| Actual result | D+4.8 |
| Residual σ | 6.00pt |
| Generated | 7/1/2026 |
Endorsements · 0 total
Source · Wikipedia · 3 candidates with no endorsements yetDJared Moskowitz0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.
RJoe Budd0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.
IChristine Scott0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.
Money raised · own committees
FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · last filing 2022-11-07Jared MoskowitzH2FL22171 ↗
Receipts
$1.8M
Disburse
$1.7M
Cash on hand
$82.6K
Debts
$250.0K
Top industries
Lawyers / law firms$6.3K
Lawyers / law firms · $6.3K
- Berger Singerman LLP · $6.3K
Individuals $6.3K · PACs $0
Top contributors
CAPITAL CITY CONSULTING$15.1K
LSN PARTNERS$14.5K
TETRA TECH$12.6K
ASHBRITT ENVIRONMENTAL$11.6K
BALLARD PARTNERS$9.8K
Joe Budd
Receipts
$171.4K
Disburse
$171.1K
Cash on hand
$257.09
Debts
$55.0K
Top industries
Health professionals$2.9K
Health professionals · $2.9K
- Michael Barnard Dds · $2.9K
Individuals $2.9K · PACs $0
Education$1.5K
Education · $1.5K
- Bruce Smith Cpa · $1.5K
Individuals $1.5K · PACs $0
Insurance$1.0K
Insurance · $1.0K
- Egis Insurance Advisors · $1.0K
Individuals $1.0K · PACs $0
Top contributors
GOLD COAST LOGISTICS GROUP$5.8K
KORFF HOLDINGS LLC$3.0K
PRO ROOFING SERVICES$2.9K
MICHAEL BARNARD DDS$2.9K
AD EDGE INC$2.9K
Christine Scott
Receipts
$102.8K
Disburse
$102.7K
Cash on hand
$6.03
Debts
$0
Top industries
No industry data.
Top contributors
No contributor data.
Outside spending · independent expenditures
FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · 24/48-hr IE reportsIE total
$2.2M
D side
$2.2M · 100%
R side
$0 · 0%
Top spender
PROTECT OUR FUTURE PAC
| Spender | Side | Amount | Share | Target |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PROTECT OUR FUTURE PAC super pac · boosts D
| D | $1.0M | 48% | for Jared Moskowitz |
| WEB3 FORWARD super pac · boosts D
| D | $637.6K | 29% | for Jared Moskowitz |
| MOVING BROWARD FORWARD PAC super pac · boosts D
| D | $484.1K | 22% | for Jared Moskowitz |
| FLORIDA FREEDOM PAC super pac · boosts D
| D | $1.1K | 0% | for Jared Moskowitz |
Editorial ratings · 6 raters
Cook · Sabato · Inside Elections · 538 · DDHQ et al.Safe D4
Safe D · 4 raters
- The Cook Political Report · Apr 24
- DDHQ · Jul 19
- The Economist · Sep 27
- Inside Elections · May 16
Likely D2
Likely D · 2 raters
- 538 · Oct 19
- Sabato's Crystal Ball · Nov 1
The Cook Political Report
Safe DDDHQ
Safe DThe Economist
Safe D538
Likely DInside Elections
Safe DSabato's Crystal Ball
Likely DDemographic crosstabs
age · education · race · genderNo demographic crosstabs published for this race yet. Most pollsters release only topline numbers; subgroup breakdowns (age, education, race, gender) appear here when a pollster publishes them.
Rating timeline
Verification trail
Polls verified0 / 0deterministic
Polls flagged—none
Markets ingested0 platformsnone listed
FEC filingssyncedcommittee + IE · 2022-11-07
Endorsements—nothing to sync
News coverage< 5 articlesGoogle News
Method · bounds + percentage totals + date-order checks