Races · house · 2022 · Florida

house · open seat

Lois Frankel vs Dan Franzese

← Florida house Florida house →

Likely DD +10.5 forecast· 0 polls · 0 markets

Model's final pre-election call · win probabilitypoliagg-v34 · final pre-election call
96% Frankel (D)
4% Franzese (R)
Win probability
Lois Frankel96% (D)
Dan Franzese4% (R)
Modelpoliagg-v34 · final pre-election call
Chance of winning across many simulations of the race — not projected vote share.
R+15R+5TIEDD+5D+15
Predicted margin
Point estimateD +10.5
80% CIR+1.5 → D+22.5
The model’s central margin (D-positive) with its 80% interval — the shaded band on the scale.
Model's predicted final margin D +10.5 · 80% CI R+1.5 → D+22.5
Actual result D+10.2 · backtest (race already called)

Momentum

—

insufficient data

Tipping-point P

0.0%

Decisive for chamber control

Market · D-side

—

Cross-platform consensus

News articles · 30d

—

no recent coverage

Where this race stands

Verified

Lean D · model 96% D

No recent polls or markets for this race. PVI baseline (D+4) suggests Lean D.

The poliagg-v34 ensemble forecasts D+10.5 with an 80% CI ranging from R+1.5 (10th pctile) to D+22.5 (90th pctile), giving D a 96% chance of winning.

CITATIONS · lean-d

Forecast · poliagg-v34

Predicted final margin

D +10.5

80% CI: R +1.5 → D +22.5 · win prob 96%

R+30R+15TIEDD+15D+30

Quality · inputs

Data quality · medium

Polls used	0
Days to election	passed
Actual result	D+10.2
Residual σ	6.00pt
Generated	7/1/2026

Endorsements · 0 total

Source · Wikipedia · 2 candidates with no endorsements yet

DLois Frankel0 endorsers

no endorsers yet

No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.

RDan Franzese0 endorsers

no endorsers yet

No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.

Money raised · own committees

FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · last filing 2022-11-07

Dan FranzeseH2FL21108 ↗

Receipts

$1.6M

Disburse

$1.6M

Cash on hand

$8.0K

Debts

$1.2M

Top industries

Computers / electronics$6.8K

TV / movies / music$5.8K

Top contributors

PINEAPPLE HQ$6.8K

EVENTIDE VENTURES LLC$5.8K

NBCFI$5.8K

UNKOWN$4.9K

BANK OF AMER$4.0K

Outside spending · independent expenditures

FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · 24/48-hr IE reports

IE total

$66.8K

D side

$18.8K · 28%

R side

$48.0K · 72%

Top spender

USA FREEDOM FUND

For / against split

Against Franzese $18.8K

For Franzese $48.0K

Spender	Side	Amount	Share	Target
USA FREEDOM FUND	R	$48.0K	72%	for Dan Franzese
FLORIDA LEADERSHIP PAC	D	$18.8K	28%	against Dan Franzese

Editorial ratings · 6 raters

Cook · Sabato · Inside Elections · 538 · DDHQ et al.

Safe D6

The Cook Political Report

Safe D

Apr 24

DDHQ

Safe D

Jul 19

The Economist

Safe D

Sep 27

538

Safe D

Jun 29

Inside Elections

Safe D

May 16

Sabato's Crystal Ball

Safe D

Apr 26

Demographic crosstabs

age · education · race · gender

No demographic crosstabs published for this race yet. Most pollsters release only topline numbers; subgroup breakdowns (age, education, race, gender) appear here when a pollster publishes them.

Rating timeline

May 15, 2026Likely Dmodel

May 11, 2026Safe Dmodel

Verification trail

Polls verified0 / 0deterministic

Polls flagged—none

Markets ingested0 platformsnone listed

FEC filingssyncedcommittee + IE · 2022-11-07

Endorsements—nothing to sync

News coverage< 5 articlesGoogle News

Method · bounds + percentage totals + date-order checks