NonpartisanIndependent, data-first coverage of US elections — polls, forecasts, and prediction markets, refreshed daily.Updated daily.What's new ↗·Methodology·Send feedback
Races · house · 2022 · Florida
house · open seat

Sheila Cherfilus-McCormick vs Drew Montez Clark

← Florida houseFlorida house →
Safe DD +42.6 forecast· 0 polls · 0 markets
Model's final pre-election call · win probabilitypoliagg-v34 · final pre-election call
99% Cherfilus-McCormick (D)
1% Clark (R)
R+15R+5TIEDD+5D+15
Model's predicted final margin D +42.6 · 80% CI D+30.6 → D+54.6
Actual result D+44.6 · backtest (race already called)
Momentum
—
insufficient data
Tipping-point P
0.0%
Decisive for chamber control
Market · D-side
—
Cross-platform consensus
News articles · 30d
—
no recent coverage
Where this race stands
Verified

Safe D · model 99% D

No recent polls or markets for this race. PVI baseline (D+22) suggests Safe D.

The poliagg-v34 ensemble forecasts D+42.6 with an 80% CI ranging from D+30.6 (10th pctile) to D+54.6 (90th pctile), giving D a 99% chance of winning.

CITATIONS · safe-d
Forecast · poliagg-v34
Predicted final margin
D +42.6
80% CI: D +30.6 → D +54.6 · win prob 99%
R+60R+30TIEDD+30D+60
Quality · inputs
Data quality · medium
Polls used0
Days to electionpassed
Actual resultD+44.6
Residual σ6.00pt
Generated7/1/2026

Endorsements · 0 total

Source · Wikipedia · 2 candidates with no endorsements yet
DSheila Cherfilus-McCormick0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.
RDrew Montez Clark0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.

Money raised · own committees

FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · last filing 2022-11-10
Sheila Cherfilus-McCormickH8FL20032 ↗
Receipts
$6.8M
Disburse
$6.8M
Cash on hand
$2.8K
Debts
$3.8M
Top industries
Health professionals$17.4K
Real estate$6.1K
Lawyers / law firms$4.9K
Top contributors
FLORIDA CRYSTALS$17.4K
TRINITY HEALTH CARE SERVICES$17.4K
INOVA$7.8K
REALTOR$6.1K
JETBLUE$5.8K
Drew Montez ClarkH2FL25083 ↗
Receipts
$146.0K
Disburse
$141.5K
Cash on hand
$4.5K
Debts
$5.8K
Top industries
No industry data.
Top contributors
ROOF REVOLUTION$5.8K
LINDSAY HONDA$2.9K
KIMERA LABS$2.9K
BOATMAN RICCI$2.9K
CENTURY CARRIERS INC$2.0K

Outside spending · independent expenditures

FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · 24/48-hr IE reports
IE total
$258.5K
D side
$66.4K · 26%
R side
$192.0K · 74%
Top spender
TRUE DEMOCRATS ONLY…
For / against split
For Cherfilus-McCormick $66.4K
Against Cherfilus-McCormick $177.0K
For Clark $15.0K
SpenderSideAmountShareTarget
TRUE DEMOCRATS ONLY PACR$177.0K68%against Sheila Cherfilus-McCormick
HAITIAN AMERICAN VOTES PACD$65.3K25%for Sheila Cherfilus-McCormick
NEW JOURNEY PAC, INC.R$15.0K6%for Drew Montez Clark
FLORIDA FREEDOM PACD$1.1K0%for Sheila Cherfilus-McCormick
SIERRA CLUB INDEPENDENT ACTIOND$100%for Sheila Cherfilus-McCormick

Editorial ratings · 6 raters

Cook · Sabato · Inside Elections · 538 · DDHQ et al.
Safe D6
The Cook Political Report
Safe D
Apr 24
DDHQ
Safe D
Jul 19
The Economist
Safe D
Sep 27
538
Safe D
Jun 29
Inside Elections
Safe D
May 16
Sabato's Crystal Ball
Safe D
Apr 26

Demographic crosstabs

age · education · race · gender
No demographic crosstabs published for this race yet. Most pollsters release only topline numbers; subgroup breakdowns (age, education, race, gender) appear here when a pollster publishes them.
Rating timeline
May 11, 2026Safe Dmodel
Verification trail
Polls verified0 / 0deterministic
Polls flagged—none
Markets ingested0 platformsnone listed
FEC filingssyncedcommittee + IE · 2022-11-10
Endorsements—nothing to sync
News coverage< 5 articlesGoogle News
Method · bounds + percentage totals + date-order checks