Races · house · 2022 · Florida
house · open seat
Al Lawson vs Neal Dunn
Where this race stands
VerifiedLikely R · model 99% R
No recent polls or markets for this race. PVI baseline (R+8) suggests Likely R.
The poliagg-v34 ensemble forecasts R+19.3 with an 80% CI ranging from R+31.3 (10th pctile) to R+7.3 (90th pctile), giving R a 99% chance of winning.
CITATIONS · likely-r
Forecast · poliagg-v34
Predicted final margin
R +19.3
80% CI: R +31.3 → R +7.3 · win prob 1%
R+45R+23TIEDD+23D+45
Quality · inputs
Data quality · medium
| Polls used | 0 |
| Days to election | passed |
| Actual result | R+19.6 |
| Residual σ | 6.00pt |
| Generated | 7/1/2026 |
Endorsements · 0 total
Source · Wikipedia · 2 candidates with no endorsements yetDAl Lawson0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.
RNeal Dunn0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.
Money raised · own committees
FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · last filing 2022-10-31Neal DunnH6FL02208 ↗
Receipts
$1.8M
Disburse
$2.0M
Cash on hand
$245.0K
Debts
$563.1K
Top industries
Health professionals$9.0K
Health professionals · $9.0K
- Tallahassee Orthopedic Clinic · $9.0K
Individuals $9.0K · PACs $0
Top contributors
REGENATIVE LABS$15.0K
BILL CRAMER CHEVROLET$11.6K
CONTINENTAL PACIFIC LLC$11.6K
LEWIS BEAR COMPANY$11.2K
MIR SCIENTIFIC$9.2K
Al LawsonH0FL02086 ↗
Receipts
$829.3K
Disburse
$946.4K
Cash on hand
$50.4K
Debts
$0
Top industries
Education$8.7K
Education · $8.7K
- Keiser University · $5.8K
- American Career College · $2.9K
Individuals $8.7K · PACs $0
Health professionals$8.5K
Health professionals · $8.5K
- Healthcare Equity Solutions · $5.6K
- Shaun E. Laurie, Md,pa · $2.9K
Individuals $8.5K · PACs $0
Top contributors
BALLARD PARTNERS$5.9K
KEISER UNIVERSITY$5.8K
THE JAY ODOM GROUP$5.8K
HEALTHCARE EQUITY SOLUTIONS$5.6K
AMSCOT FINANCIAL$5.0K
Outside spending · independent expenditures
FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · 24/48-hr IE reportsIE total
$112.6K
D side
$488.82 · 0%
R side
$112.1K · 100%
Top spender
HEALTHCARE FREEDOM …
| Spender | Side | Amount | Share | Target |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HEALTHCARE FREEDOM SUPER PAC super pac · boosts R
| R | $111.2K | 99% | for Neal Dunn |
| THE GUARDIAN FUND pac · boosts R
| R | $902 | 1% | for Neal Dunn |
| FLORIDA FREEDOM PAC super pac · boosts D
| D | $470.14 | 0% | for Al Lawson |
| SIERRA CLUB INDEPENDENT ACTION super pac · boosts D
| D | $10 | 0% | for Al Lawson |
| PLANNED PARENTHOOD VOTES super pac · boosts D
| D | $8.68 | 0% | for Al Lawson |
Editorial ratings · 6 raters
Cook · Sabato · Inside Elections · 538 · DDHQ et al.Safe R6
Safe R · 6 raters
- The Cook Political Report · Apr 24
- DDHQ · Jul 19
- The Economist · Sep 27
- 538 · Jun 29
- Inside Elections · May 16
- Sabato's Crystal Ball · Apr 26
The Cook Political Report
Safe RDDHQ
Safe RThe Economist
Safe R538
Safe RInside Elections
Safe RSabato's Crystal Ball
Safe RDemographic crosstabs
age · education · race · genderNo demographic crosstabs published for this race yet. Most pollsters release only topline numbers; subgroup breakdowns (age, education, race, gender) appear here when a pollster publishes them.
Rating timeline
Verification trail
Polls verified0 / 0deterministic
Polls flagged—none
Markets ingested0 platformsnone listed
FEC filingssyncedcommittee + IE · 2022-10-31
Endorsements—nothing to sync
News coverage< 5 articlesGoogle News
Method · bounds + percentage totals + date-order checks