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Races · house · 2022 · Florida
house · open seat

Cindy Banyai vs Byron Donalds

← Florida houseFlorida house →
Safe RR +28.4 forecast· 0 polls · 0 markets
Model's final pre-election call · win probabilitypoliagg-v34 · final pre-election call
1% Banyai (D)
99% Donalds (R)
R+15R+5TIEDD+5D+15
Model's predicted final margin R +28.4 · 80% CI R+40.4 → R+16.4
Actual result R+36.0 · backtest (race already called)
Momentum
—
insufficient data
Tipping-point P
0.0%
Decisive for chamber control
Market · D-side
—
Cross-platform consensus
News articles · 30d
—
no recent coverage
Where this race stands
Verified

Likely R · model 99% R

No recent polls or markets for this race. PVI baseline (R+14) suggests Likely R.

The poliagg-v34 ensemble forecasts R+28.4 with an 80% CI ranging from R+40.4 (10th pctile) to R+16.4 (90th pctile), giving R a 99% chance of winning.

CITATIONS · likely-r
Forecast · poliagg-v34
Predicted final margin
R +28.4
80% CI: R +40.4 → R +16.4 · win prob 1%
R+45R+23TIEDD+23D+45
Quality · inputs
Data quality · medium
Polls used0
Days to electionpassed
Actual resultR+36.0
Residual σ6.00pt
Generated7/1/2026

Endorsements · 0 total

Source · Wikipedia · 3 candidates with no endorsements yet
RByron Donalds0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.
DCindy Banyai0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.
IPatrick Post (write-in)0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.

Money raised · own committees

FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · last filing 2022-11-07
Byron DonaldsH2FL14186 ↗
Receipts
$5.7M
Disburse
$5.4M
Cash on hand
$738.0K
Debts
$0
Top industries
Education$19.4K
Lawyers / law firms$6.8K
Top contributors
INVESTMENTS LIMITED$11.6K
ENTREPRENEUR$10.9K
WCAS$8.7K
THEGROUP$8.3K
MORAN WEALTH MANAGMENT$8.3K
Cindy BanyaiOWN COMMITTEE
Receipts
$108.9K
Disburse
$106.7K
Cash on hand
$277.7K
Debts
$36.4K
Top industries
Crop production$1.7K
Electric utilities$700
Top contributors
K ROWE INVESTMENTS LLC$5.8K
BIOMET$2.9K
AMERICAN FEDERATION OF SCHOOL ADMINSTR$1.7K
CENTER FOR SIGHT$1.4K
CUMBERLAND ADVISORS$1.0K

Outside spending · independent expenditures

FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · 24/48-hr IE reports
IE total
$529.1K
D side
$0 · 0%
R side
$529.1K · 100%
Top spender
ELBERT GUILLORY'S A…
For / against split
For Donalds $529.1K
SpenderSideAmountShareTarget
ELBERT GUILLORY'S AMERICAR$493.4K93%for Byron Donalds
PROTECT FREEDOM POLITICAL ACTION COMMITTEER$30.0K6%for Byron Donalds
NEW JOURNEY PAC, INC.R$3.5K1%for Byron Donalds
HOUSE FREEDOM FUNDR$1.2K0%for Byron Donalds
THE GUARDIAN FUNDR$9020%for Byron Donalds

Editorial ratings · 6 raters

Cook · Sabato · Inside Elections · 538 · DDHQ et al.
Safe R6
The Cook Political Report
Safe R
Apr 24
DDHQ
Safe R
Jul 19
The Economist
Safe R
Sep 27
538
Safe R
Jun 29
Inside Elections
Safe R
May 16
Sabato's Crystal Ball
Safe R
Apr 26

Demographic crosstabs

age · education · race · gender
No demographic crosstabs published for this race yet. Most pollsters release only topline numbers; subgroup breakdowns (age, education, race, gender) appear here when a pollster publishes them.
Rating timeline
May 11, 2026Safe Rmodel
Verification trail
Polls verified0 / 0deterministic
Polls flagged—none
Markets ingested0 platformsnone listed
FEC filingssyncedcommittee + IE · 2022-11-07
Endorsements—nothing to sync
News coverage< 5 articlesGoogle News
Method · bounds + percentage totals + date-order checks