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Races · house · 2022 · Florida
house · open seat

Jan Schneider vs Vern Buchanan

← Florida houseFlorida house →
Safe RR +17.3 forecast· 0 polls · 0 markets
Model's final pre-election call · win probabilitypoliagg-v34 · final pre-election call
1% Schneider (D)
99% Buchanan (R)
R+15R+5TIEDD+5D+15
Model's predicted final margin R +17.3 · 80% CI R+29.3 → R+5.3
Actual result R+24.2 · backtest (race already called)
Momentum
—
insufficient data
Tipping-point P
0.0%
Decisive for chamber control
Market · D-side
—
Cross-platform consensus
News articles · 30d
—
no recent coverage
Where this race stands
Verified

Lean R · model 99% R

No recent polls or markets for this race. PVI baseline (R+7) suggests Lean R.

The poliagg-v34 ensemble forecasts R+17.3 with an 80% CI ranging from R+29.3 (10th pctile) to R+5.3 (90th pctile), giving R a 99% chance of winning.

CITATIONS · lean-r
Forecast · poliagg-v34
Predicted final margin
R +17.3
80% CI: R +29.3 → R +5.3 · win prob 1%
R+30R+15TIEDD+15D+30
Quality · inputs
Data quality · medium
Polls used0
Days to electionpassed
Actual resultR+24.2
Residual σ6.00pt
Generated7/1/2026

Endorsements · 0 total

Source · Wikipedia · 3 candidates with no endorsements yet
RVern Buchanan0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.
DJan Schneider0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.
IRalph E. Hartman (write-in)0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.

Money raised · own committees

FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · last filing 2022-10-19
Vern BuchananH6FL13148 ↗
Receipts
$4.7M
Disburse
$3.4M
Cash on hand
$1.4M
Debts
$0
Top industries
Electric utilities$35.0K
Securities & investment$11.6K
Top contributors
NEXTERA ENERGY$35.0K
ADVOCATE RADIATION ONCOLOGY, LLC$28.2K
SELF EMLOYED$21.4K
RYAN LLC$18.0K
AXXESS$15.0K
Jan SchneiderOWN COMMITTEE
Receipts
$22.7K
Disburse
$47.6K
Cash on hand
$32.2K
Debts
$143.1K
Top industries
No industry data.
Top contributors
OWNER$250

Outside spending · independent expenditures

FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · 24/48-hr IE reports
IE total
$143.6K
D side
$8.68 · 0%
R side
$143.5K · 100%
Top spender
AMERICAN HOSPITAL A…
For / against split
Against Buchanan $8.68
For Buchanan $143.5K
SpenderSideAmountShareTarget
AMERICAN HOSPITAL ASSOCIATION PACR$76.8K54%for Vern Buchanan
HUMANE SOCIETY LEGISLATIVE FUNDR$66.7K46%for Vern Buchanan
PLANNED PARENTHOOD VOTESD$8.680%against Vern Buchanan

Editorial ratings · 6 raters

Cook · Sabato · Inside Elections · 538 · DDHQ et al.
Safe R6
The Cook Political Report
Safe R
Apr 24
DDHQ
Safe R
Jul 19
The Economist
Safe R
Sep 27
538
Safe R
Jun 29
Inside Elections
Safe R
May 16
Sabato's Crystal Ball
Safe R
Apr 26

Demographic crosstabs

age · education · race · gender
No demographic crosstabs published for this race yet. Most pollsters release only topline numbers; subgroup breakdowns (age, education, race, gender) appear here when a pollster publishes them.
Rating timeline
Jun 22, 2026Safe Rmodel
May 11, 2026Likely Rmodel
Verification trail
Polls verified0 / 0deterministic
Polls flagged—none
Markets ingested0 platformsnone listed
FEC filingssyncedcommittee + IE · 2022-10-19
Endorsements—nothing to sync
News coverage< 5 articlesGoogle News
Method · bounds + percentage totals + date-order checks