Races · house · 2022 · Florida

house · open seat

Alan Cohn vs The Tyson Group

← Florida house Florida house →

Likely RR +12.5 forecast· 0 polls · 0 markets

Model's final pre-election call · win probabilitypoliagg-v34 · final pre-election call
2% Cohn (D)
98% Group (R)
Win probability
Alan Cohn2% (D)
The Tyson Group98% (R)
Modelpoliagg-v34 · final pre-election call
Chance of winning across many simulations of the race — not projected vote share.
R+15R+5TIEDD+5D+15
Predicted margin
Point estimateR +12.5
80% CIR+24.5 → R+0.5
The model’s central margin (D-positive) with its 80% interval — the shaded band on the scale.
Model's predicted final margin R +12.5 · 80% CI R+24.5 → R+0.5
Actual result R+17.0 · backtest (race already called)

Momentum

—

insufficient data

Tipping-point P

0.0%

Decisive for chamber control

Market · D-side

—

Cross-platform consensus

News articles · 30d

—

no recent coverage

Where this race stands

Verified

Lean R · model 98% R

No recent polls or markets for this race. PVI baseline (R+5) suggests Lean R.

The poliagg-v34 ensemble forecasts R+12.5 with an 80% CI ranging from R+24.5 (10th pctile) to R+0.5 (90th pctile), giving R a 98% chance of winning.

CITATIONS · lean-r

Forecast · poliagg-v34

Predicted final margin

R +12.5

80% CI: R +24.5 → R +0.5 · win prob 2%

R+30R+15TIEDD+15D+30

Quality · inputs

Data quality · medium

Polls used	0
Days to election	passed
Actual result	R+17.0
Residual σ	6.00pt
Generated	7/1/2026

Endorsements · 0 total

Source · Wikipedia · 2 candidates with no endorsements yet

RThe Tyson Group0 endorsers

no endorsers yet

No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.

DAlan Cohn0 endorsers

no endorsers yet

No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.

Money raised · own committees

FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · last filing 2022-11-08

Alan CohnH4FL15155 ↗

Receipts

$825.9K

Disburse

$856.7K

Cash on hand

$2.0K

Debts

$3.5K

Top industries

Securities & investment$11.6K

Real estate$5.8K

Health professionals$3.9K

Top contributors

LAUDER PARTNERS LLC$5.8K

BAIN CAPITAL$5.8K

VAN WAGNER$5.8K

ELC$5.8K

OPTUM360$5.8K

Outside spending · independent expenditures

FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · 24/48-hr IE reports

IE total

$2.9M

D side

$313.2K · 11%

R side

$2.5M · 89%

Top spender

AMERICANS FOR PROSP…

For / against split

For Cohn $267

Against Lee $313.0K

Against Cohn $16.4K

For Lee $2.5M

Spender	Side	Amount	Share	Target
AMERICANS FOR PROSPERITY ACTION, INC. (AFP ACTION) DBA CVA ACTION AND DBA LIBRE ACTION	R	$12.5K	0%	against Alan Cohn
WOMEN SPEAK OUT PAC	R	$3.9K	0%	against Alan Cohn
JDCA PAC	D	$267	0%	for Alan Cohn

Editorial ratings · 6 raters

Cook · Sabato · Inside Elections · 538 · DDHQ et al.

Lean R1

Likely R4

Safe R1

The Cook Political Report

Likely R

Apr 24

DDHQ

Lean R

Aug 28

The Economist

Likely R

Sep 27

538

Safe R

Oct 18

Inside Elections

Likely R

May 16

Sabato's Crystal Ball

Likely R

Apr 26

Demographic crosstabs

age · education · race · gender

No demographic crosstabs published for this race yet. Most pollsters release only topline numbers; subgroup breakdowns (age, education, race, gender) appear here when a pollster publishes them.

Rating timeline

Jul 1, 2026Likely Rmodel

Jun 22, 2026Safe Rmodel

May 11, 2026Likely Rmodel

Verification trail

Polls verified0 / 0deterministic

Polls flagged—none

Markets ingested0 platformsnone listed

FEC filingssyncedcommittee + IE · 2022-11-08

Endorsements—nothing to sync

News coverage< 5 articlesGoogle News

Method · bounds + percentage totals + date-order checks