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Races · house · 2022 · Florida
PrimariesThis seat also has primary-season views:Republican primary
house · open seat

Eric Lynn vs American Viewpoint

← Florida houseFlorida house →
Tilt RR +0.8 forecast· 0 polls · 0 markets
Model's final pre-election call · win probabilitypoliagg-v34 · final pre-election call
44% Lynn (D)
56% Viewpoint (R)
R+15R+5TIEDD+5D+15
Model's predicted final margin R +0.8 · 80% CI R+12.8 → D+11.2
Actual result R+8.0 · backtest (race already called)
Momentum
—
insufficient data
Tipping-point P
0.0%
Decisive for chamber control
Market · D-side
—
Cross-platform consensus
News articles · 30d
—
no recent coverage
Where this race stands
Verified

Lean R · model 56% R

No recent polls or markets for this race. PVI baseline (R+5) suggests Lean R.

The poliagg-v34 ensemble forecasts R+0.8 with an 80% CI ranging from R+12.8 (10th pctile) to D+11.2 (90th pctile), giving R a 56% chance of winning.

CITATIONS · lean-r
Forecast · poliagg-v34
Predicted final margin
R +0.8
80% CI: R +12.8 → D +11.2 · win prob 44%
R+30R+15TIEDD+15D+30
Quality · inputs
Data quality · medium
Polls used0
Days to electionpassed
Actual resultR+8.0
Residual σ6.00pt
Generated7/1/2026

Endorsements · 0 total

Source · Wikipedia · 2 candidates with no endorsements yet
RAmerican Viewpoint0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.
DEric Lynn0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.

Money raised · own committees

FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · last filing 2022-12-08
Eric LynnH6FL13189 ↗
Receipts
$2.2M
Disburse
$2.1M
Cash on hand
$301.5K
Debts
$0
Top industries
No industry data.
Top contributors
SHORE CAPITAL PARTNERS$19.3K
COUNCIL ON STRATEGIC RISKS$11.6K
JOHNSON POPE$9.1K
KING & SPALDING$8.7K
IBEX INVESTORS$7.8K

Outside spending · independent expenditures

FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · 24/48-hr IE reports
IE total
$22.1M
D side
$19.8M · 90%
R side
$2.2M · 10%
Top spender
PROGRESS PINELLAS
For / against split
For Lynn $9.2M
Against Hayslett $10.6M
Against Lynn $123.9K
For Hayslett $2.1M
SpenderSideAmountShareTarget
PROGRESS PINELLASD$9.2M42%for Eric Lynn
AMERICANS FOR PROTECTING LIBERTYR$95.8K0%against Eric Lynn
CLUB FOR GROWTH ACTIONR$24.2K0%against Eric Lynn
WOMEN SPEAK OUT PACR$3.9K0%against Eric Lynn

Editorial ratings · 6 raters

Cook · Sabato · Inside Elections · 538 · DDHQ et al.
Lean R3
Likely R3
The Cook Political Report
Lean R
Nov 6
DDHQ
Likely R
Sep 28
The Economist
Lean R
Oct 31
538
Likely R
Oct 29
Inside Elections
Lean R
Nov 2
Sabato's Crystal Ball
Likely R
Apr 26

Demographic crosstabs

age · education · race · gender
No demographic crosstabs published for this race yet. Most pollsters release only topline numbers; subgroup breakdowns (age, education, race, gender) appear here when a pollster publishes them.
Rating timeline
Jul 1, 2026Tilt Rmodel
May 15, 2026Lean Rmodel
May 11, 2026Lean Dmodel
Verification trail
Polls verified0 / 0deterministic
Polls flagged—none
Markets ingested0 platformsnone listed
FEC filingssyncedcommittee + IE · 2022-12-08
Endorsements—nothing to sync
News coverage< 5 articlesGoogle News
Method · bounds + percentage totals + date-order checks