Races · house · 2022 · Florida
house · open seat
Kimberly Walker vs Gus Bilirakis
Where this race stands
VerifiedSafe R · model 99% R
No recent polls or markets for this race. PVI baseline (R+17) suggests Safe R.
The poliagg-v34 ensemble forecasts R+32.9 with an 80% CI ranging from R+44.9 (10th pctile) to R+20.9 (90th pctile), giving R a 99% chance of winning.
CITATIONS · safe-r
Forecast · poliagg-v34
Predicted final margin
R +32.9
80% CI: R +44.9 → R +20.9 · win prob 1%
R+45R+23TIEDD+23D+45
Quality · inputs
Data quality · medium
| Polls used | 0 |
| Days to election | passed |
| Actual result | R+40.8 |
| Residual σ | 6.00pt |
| Generated | 7/1/2026 |
Endorsements · 0 total
Source · Wikipedia · 3 candidates with no endorsements yetRGus Bilirakis0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.
DKimberly Walker0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.
ICharles Smith (write-in)0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.
Money raised · own committees
FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · last filing 2022-11-02Gus BilirakisH6FL09070 ↗
Receipts
$2.0M
Disburse
$1.9M
Cash on hand
$143.1K
Debts
$0
Top industries
Oil & gas$27.2K
Oil & gas · $27.2K
- Igas · $27.2K
Individuals $27.2K · PACs $0
Top contributors
IGAS$27.2K
LINCARE$13.0K
HARBORLIGHT HOLDINGS, LLC$11.6K
NWTC$11.2K
BALLARD PARTNERS$9.3K
Kimberly Walker
Receipts
$20.4K
Disburse
$23.8K
Cash on hand
$5.9K
Debts
$0
Top industries
Govt employees$200
Govt employees · $200
- City of St Petersburg · $200
Individuals $200 · PACs $0
Lawyers / law firms$140
Lawyers / law firms · $140
- Yarden Law Group LLC · $140
Individuals $140 · PACs $0
Education$100
Education · $100
- Community College · $100
Individuals $100 · PACs $0
Real estate$100
Real estate · $100
- First Eashington Realty · $100
Individuals $100 · PACs $0
Top contributors
TRANS REGIONAL MARKETING$220
CITY OF ST PETERSBURG$200
YARDEN LAW GROUP LLC$140
COMMUNITY COLLEGE$100
LEVEL V INC$100
Outside spending · independent expenditures
FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · 24/48-hr IE reportsIE total
$75.1K
D side
$0 · 0%
R side
$75.1K · 100%
Top spender
VETERANS AID PAC
| Spender | Side | Amount | Share | Target |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| VETERANS AID PAC super pac · boosts R
| R | $71.8K | 96% | for Gus Bilirakis |
| UNITED VETERANS ALLIANCE OF AMERICA PAC super pac · boosts R
| R | $3.3K | 4% | for Gus Bilirakis |
Editorial ratings · 6 raters
Cook · Sabato · Inside Elections · 538 · DDHQ et al.Safe R6
Safe R · 6 raters
- The Cook Political Report · Apr 24
- DDHQ · Jul 19
- The Economist · Sep 27
- 538 · Jun 29
- Inside Elections · May 16
- Sabato's Crystal Ball · Apr 26
The Cook Political Report
Safe RDDHQ
Safe RThe Economist
Safe R538
Safe RInside Elections
Safe RSabato's Crystal Ball
Safe RDemographic crosstabs
age · education · race · genderNo demographic crosstabs published for this race yet. Most pollsters release only topline numbers; subgroup breakdowns (age, education, race, gender) appear here when a pollster publishes them.
Rating timeline
Verification trail
Polls verified0 / 0deterministic
Polls flagged—none
Markets ingested0 platformsnone listed
FEC filingssyncedcommittee + IE · 2022-11-02
Endorsements—nothing to sync
News coverage< 5 articlesGoogle News
Method · bounds + percentage totals + date-order checks