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Races · house · 2022 · Florida
PrimariesThis seat also has primary-season views:Republican primary
house · open seat

Rebekah Jones vs Matt Gaetz

← Delaware houseFlorida house →
Safe RR +33.5 forecast· 0 polls · 0 markets
Model's final pre-election call · win probabilitypoliagg-v34 · final pre-election call
1% Jones (D)
99% Gaetz (R)
R+15R+5TIEDD+5D+15
Model's predicted final margin R +33.5 · 80% CI R+45.5 → R+21.5
Actual result R+35.8 · backtest (race already called)
Momentum
—
insufficient data
Tipping-point P
0.0%
Decisive for chamber control
Market · D-side
—
Cross-platform consensus
News articles · 30d
—
no recent coverage
Where this race stands
Verified

Safe R · model 99% R

No recent polls or markets for this race. PVI baseline (R+18) suggests Safe R.

The poliagg-v34 ensemble forecasts R+33.5 with an 80% CI ranging from R+45.5 (10th pctile) to R+21.5 (90th pctile), giving R a 99% chance of winning.

CITATIONS · safe-r
Forecast · poliagg-v34
Predicted final margin
R +33.5
80% CI: R +45.5 → R +21.5 · win prob 1%
R+60R+30TIEDD+30D+60
Quality · inputs
Data quality · medium
Polls used0
Days to electionpassed
Actual resultR+35.8
Residual σ6.00pt
Generated7/1/2026

Endorsements · 0 total

Source · Wikipedia · 2 candidates with no endorsements yet
RMatt Gaetz0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.
DRebekah Jones0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.

Money raised · own committees

FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · last filing 2022-11-03
Matt GaetzH6FL01119 ↗
Receipts
$6.7M
Disburse
$7.8M
Cash on hand
$569.4K
Debts
$0
Top industries
Commercial banks$6.0K
Insurance$5.8K
Crop production$5.8K
Top contributors
ARCHER AUTO GROUP$13.2K
CASSIDY HOLDINGS$11.6K
GOLDCOAST LOGISTICS GROUP$11.6K
DERMPATH DIAGNOSTICS$8.7K
WELLS FARGO$6.0K
Rebekah JonesOWN COMMITTEE
Receipts
$980.9K
Disburse
$981.4K
Cash on hand
$-541.3
Debts
$148.7K
Top industries
Insurance$9.7K
Health professionals$7.2K
Education$3.0K
Top contributors
HUMANA$9.7K
WETA DIGITAL$5.8K
K ROWE INVESTMENTS, LLC$5.7K
SANTA ROSA MEDICAL GROUP$4.7K
YALE UNIVERSITY$3.0K

Outside spending · independent expenditures

FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · 24/48-hr IE reports
IE total
$145.0K
D side
$55.5K · 38%
R side
$89.5K · 62%
Top spender
FLORIDA CONSERVATIV…
For / against split
Against Gaetz $55.5K
For Gaetz $89.5K
SpenderSideAmountShareTarget
FLORIDA CONSERVATIVE FUNDR$89.5K62%for Matt Gaetz
OCCUPY DEMOCRATS ELECTION FUNDD$31.8K22%against Matt Gaetz
DEFEAT BY TWEETD$10.7K7%against Matt Gaetz
VOTE LOCAL VOTE BLUED$6.8K5%against Matt Gaetz
MAD DOG PACD$3.6K2%against Matt Gaetz

Editorial ratings · 6 raters

Cook · Sabato · Inside Elections · 538 · DDHQ et al.
Safe R6
The Cook Political Report
Safe R
Apr 24
DDHQ
Safe R
Jul 19
The Economist
Safe R
Sep 27
538
Safe R
Jun 29
Inside Elections
Safe R
May 16
Sabato's Crystal Ball
Safe R
Apr 26

Demographic crosstabs

age · education · race · gender
No demographic crosstabs published for this race yet. Most pollsters release only topline numbers; subgroup breakdowns (age, education, race, gender) appear here when a pollster publishes them.
Rating timeline
May 11, 2026Safe Rmodel
Verification trail
Polls verified0 / 0deterministic
Polls flagged—none
Markets ingested0 platformsnone listed
FEC filingssyncedcommittee + IE · 2022-11-03
Endorsements—nothing to sync
News coverage< 5 articlesGoogle News
Method · bounds + percentage totals + date-order checks