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Races · house · 2022 · Delaware
house · open seat

Lisa Blunt Rochester vs Lee Murphy

← Connecticut houseFlorida house →
Safe DD +16.7 forecast· 0 polls · 0 markets
Model's final pre-election call · win probabilitypoliagg-v34 · final pre-election call
99% Rochester (D)
1% Murphy (R)
R+15R+5TIEDD+5D+15
Model's predicted final margin D +16.7 · 80% CI D+4.7 → D+28.7
Actual result D+12.5 · backtest (race already called)
Momentum
—
insufficient data
Tipping-point P
0.0%
Decisive for chamber control
Market · D-side
—
Cross-platform consensus
News articles · 30d
—
no recent coverage
Where this race stands
Verified

Likely D · model 99% D

No recent polls or markets for this race. PVI baseline (D+8) suggests Likely D.

The poliagg-v34 ensemble forecasts D+16.7 with an 80% CI ranging from D+4.7 (10th pctile) to D+28.7 (90th pctile), giving D a 99% chance of winning.

CITATIONS · likely-d
Forecast · poliagg-v34
Predicted final margin
D +16.7
80% CI: D +4.7 → D +28.7 · win prob 99%
R+30R+15TIEDD+15D+30
Quality · inputs
Data quality · medium
Polls used0
Days to electionpassed
Actual resultD+12.5
Residual σ6.00pt
Generated7/1/2026

Endorsements · 0 total

Source · Wikipedia · 4 candidates with no endorsements yet
DLisa Blunt Rochester0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.
RLee Murphy0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.
LCody McNutt0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.
IDavid Rogers0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.

Money raised · own committees

FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · last filing 2022-12-30
Lee MurphyH8DE01044 ↗
Receipts
$349.9K
Disburse
$355.1K
Cash on hand
$-5,147.8
Debts
$0
Top industries
Crop production$3.2K
Top contributors
IG BURTON$5.8K
JEFFERIES ACCOUNTS$5.2K
CAREY INS GROUP$4.8K
GULLWAY CAMPGROUND$3.4K
CAREY INS$3.3K
Lisa Blunt RochesterH6DE00206 ↗
Receipts
$2.9M
Disburse
$3.3M
Cash on hand
$582.4K
Debts
$250.0K
Top industries
Lawyers / law firms$69.3K
Education$6.4K
Top contributors
YOUNG CONAWAY STARGATT & TAYLOR LLP$44.5K
STATE OF DELAWARE$18.0K
SUN PILE FOUNDATIONS INC$11.6K
MICHIGAN INSTITUTE OF UROLOGY$10.3K
INVARIANT$9.4K

Outside spending · independent expenditures

FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · 24/48-hr IE reports
IE total
$377.2K
D side
$27.36 · 0%
R side
$377.2K · 100%
Top spender
FIRST FOR AMERICA
For / against split
For Rochester $18.68
Against Murphy $8.68
For Murphy $377.2K
SpenderSideAmountShareTarget
FIRST FOR AMERICAR$377.2K100%for Lee Murphy
PLANNED PARENTHOOD VOTESD$17.360%against Lee Murphy
SIERRA CLUB INDEPENDENT ACTIOND$100%for Lisa Blunt Rochester

Demographic crosstabs

age · education · race · gender
No demographic crosstabs published for this race yet. Most pollsters release only topline numbers; subgroup breakdowns (age, education, race, gender) appear here when a pollster publishes them.
Rating timeline
Jun 22, 2026Safe Dmodel
May 15, 2026Likely Dmodel
May 11, 2026Safe Dmodel
Verification trail
Polls verified0 / 0deterministic
Polls flagged—none
Markets ingested0 platformsnone listed
FEC filingssyncedcommittee + IE · 2022-12-30
Endorsements—nothing to sync
News coverage< 5 articlesGoogle News
Method · bounds + percentage totals + date-order checks