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Races · house · 2022 · Connecticut
PrimariesThis seat also has primary-season views:Democratic primary·Republican primary
house · open seat

Jahana Hayes vs George Logan

← Connecticut houseDelaware house →
Likely DD +9.3 forecast· 0 polls · 0 markets
Model's final pre-election call · win probabilitypoliagg-v34 · final pre-election call
94% Hayes (D)
6% Logan (R)
R+15R+5TIEDD+5D+15
Model's predicted final margin D +9.3 · 80% CI R+2.7 → D+21.3
Actual result D+0.2 · backtest (race already called)
Momentum
—
insufficient data
Tipping-point P
0.0%
Decisive for chamber control
Market · D-side
—
Cross-platform consensus
News articles · 30d
—
no recent coverage
Where this race stands
Verified

Tilt D · model 94% D

No recent polls or markets for this race. PVI baseline (D+3) suggests Tilt D.

The poliagg-v34 ensemble forecasts D+9.3 with an 80% CI ranging from R+2.7 (10th pctile) to D+21.3 (90th pctile), giving D a 94% chance of winning.

CITATIONS · tilt-d
Forecast · poliagg-v34
Predicted final margin
D +9.3
80% CI: R +2.7 → D +21.3 · win prob 94%
R+30R+15TIEDD+15D+30
Quality · inputs
Data quality · medium
Polls used0
Days to electionpassed
Actual resultD+0.2
Residual σ6.00pt
Generated7/1/2026

Endorsements · 0 total

Source · Wikipedia · 2 candidates with no endorsements yet
DJahana Hayes0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.
RGeorge Logan0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.

Money raised · own committees

FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · last filing 2022-12-08
George LoganH2CT05222 ↗
Receipts
$1.3M
Disburse
$1.3M
Cash on hand
$12.1K
Debts
$0
Top industries
Govt employees$13.4K
Top contributors
BLUFF POINT ASSOCIATES$14.5K
STATE OF CT$13.4K
HAEBLER CAPITAL$8.7K
HAMILTON POINT INVESTMENTS$8.7K
CH NICKERSON INC$8.7K
Jahana HayesH8CT05245 ↗
Receipts
$2.8M
Disburse
$3.4M
Cash on hand
$360.2K
Debts
$0
Top industries
Health professionals$8.7K
Publishing / news$5.8K
Top contributors
CME CHURCH$9.9K
GREYLOCK PARTNERS$8.7K
UNION SQUARE HOSPITALITY GROUP$8.7K
TRIAN PARTNERS.COM$5.8K
US HOUSE OF REPRESENTATIVES$5.8K

Outside spending · independent expenditures

FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · 24/48-hr IE reports
IE total
$17.4M
D side
$14.0M · 80%
R side
$3.5M · 20%
Top spender
HOUSE MAJORITY PAC
For / against split
For Hayes $6.0M
Against Logan $7.9M
Against Hayes $1.4M
For Logan $2.1M
SpenderSideAmountShareTarget
HOUSE MAJORITY PACD$4.9M28%against George Logan
DCCCD$3.6M21%for Jahana Hayes
CONGRESSIONAL LEADERSHIP FUNDR$3.0M17%for George Logan
NEA ADVOCACY FUNDD$1.9M11%for Jahana Hayes
EDF ACTION VOTESD$1.2M7%against George Logan
LCV VICTORY FUNDD$640.9K4%for Jahana Hayes
CONGRESSIONAL BLACK CAUCUS PACD$614.7K4%for Jahana Hayes
CONNECTICUT REPUBLICAN PARTYR$357.7K2%for George Logan

Editorial ratings · 6 raters

Cook · Sabato · Inside Elections · 538 · DDHQ et al.
Lean D2
Tossup3
Lean R1
The Cook Political Report
Tossup
Oct 24
DDHQ
Lean D
Oct 26
The Economist
Tossup
Oct 31
538
Lean D
Oct 24
Inside Elections
Tossup
Nov 2
Sabato's Crystal Ball
Lean R
Nov 6

Demographic crosstabs

age · education · race · gender
No demographic crosstabs published for this race yet. Most pollsters release only topline numbers; subgroup breakdowns (age, education, race, gender) appear here when a pollster publishes them.
Rating timeline
May 15, 2026Likely Dmodel
Verification trail
Polls verified0 / 0deterministic
Polls flagged—none
Markets ingested0 platformsnone listed
FEC filingssyncedcommittee + IE · 2022-12-08
Endorsements—nothing to sync
News coverage< 5 articlesGoogle News
Method · bounds + percentage totals + date-order checks