Races · house · 2022 · Connecticut

house · open seat

Jim Himes vs Jayme Stevenson

← Connecticut house Connecticut house →

Safe DD +26.5 forecast· 0 polls · 0 markets

Model's final pre-election call · win probabilitypoliagg-v34 · final pre-election call
99% Himes (D)
1% Stevenson (R)
Win probability
Jim Himes99% (D)
Jayme Stevenson1% (R)
Modelpoliagg-v34 · final pre-election call
Chance of winning across many simulations of the race — not projected vote share.
R+15R+5TIEDD+5D+15
Predicted margin
Point estimateD +26.5
80% CID+14.5 → D+38.5
The model’s central margin (D-positive) with its 80% interval — the shaded band on the scale.
Model's predicted final margin D +26.5 · 80% CI D+14.5 → D+38.5
Actual result D+19.9 · backtest (race already called)

Momentum

—

insufficient data

Tipping-point P

0.0%

Decisive for chamber control

Market · D-side

—

Cross-platform consensus

News articles · 30d

—

no recent coverage

Where this race stands

Verified

Likely D · model 99% D

No recent polls or markets for this race. PVI baseline (D+13) suggests Likely D.

The poliagg-v34 ensemble forecasts D+26.5 with an 80% CI ranging from D+14.5 (10th pctile) to D+38.5 (90th pctile), giving D a 99% chance of winning.

CITATIONS · likely-d

Forecast · poliagg-v34

Predicted final margin

D +26.5

80% CI: D +14.5 → D +38.5 · win prob 99%

R+45R+23TIEDD+23D+45

Quality · inputs

Data quality · medium

Polls used	0
Days to election	passed
Actual result	D+19.9
Residual σ	6.00pt
Generated	7/1/2026

Endorsements · 0 total

Source · Wikipedia · 2 candidates with no endorsements yet

DJim Himes0 endorsers

no endorsers yet

No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.

RJayme Stevenson0 endorsers

no endorsers yet

No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.

Money raised · own committees

FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · last filing 2022-11-07

Jayme StevensonH2CT04134 ↗

Receipts

$560.8K

Disburse

$502.1K

Cash on hand

$58.7K

Debts

$175.0K

Top industries

Internet$8.7K

Govt employees$5.8K

Top contributors

MOVEFLUX CORPORATION$8.7K

TOWN OF DARIEN$8.4K

PANGEA LOGISTICS$7.5K

STATE OF CT$5.8K

NTC GROUP$5.8K

Jim HimesH8CT04172 ↗

Receipts

$1.7M

Disburse

$1.9M

Cash on hand

$1.7M

Debts

Top industries

Securities & investment$16.3K

Real estate$5.8K

Top contributors

APOLLO GLOBAL MANAGEMENT$16.3K

FERMAT CAPITAL MANAGEMENT, LLC$12.1K

KOLMAR AMERICAS INC.$9.4K

OBSERVATORY GROUP$7.3K

ORWELL PROPERTIES LLC$5.8K

Outside spending · independent expenditures

FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · 24/48-hr IE reports

IE total

$210.7K

D side

$18.68 · 0%

R side

$210.7K · 100%

Top spender

COMMON SENSE FOR CO…

For / against split

For Himes $18.68

Against Himes $40.0K

For Stevenson $170.7K

Spender	Side	Amount	Share	Target
COMMON SENSE FOR CONNECTICUT	R	$210.7K	100%	for Jayme Stevenson
SIERRA CLUB INDEPENDENT ACTION	D	$10	0%	for Jim Himes
PLANNED PARENTHOOD VOTES	D	$8.68	0%	for Jim Himes

Editorial ratings · 6 raters

Cook · Sabato · Inside Elections · 538 · DDHQ et al.

Safe D6

The Cook Political Report

Safe D

Feb 9

DDHQ

Safe D

Jul 19

The Economist

Safe D

Sep 27

538

Safe D

Jun 29

Inside Elections

Safe D

Apr 19

Sabato's Crystal Ball

Safe D

Feb 15

Demographic crosstabs

age · education · race · gender

No demographic crosstabs published for this race yet. Most pollsters release only topline numbers; subgroup breakdowns (age, education, race, gender) appear here when a pollster publishes them.

Rating timeline

May 11, 2026Safe Dmodel

Verification trail

Polls verified0 / 0deterministic

Polls flagged—none

Markets ingested0 platformsnone listed

FEC filingssyncedcommittee + IE · 2022-11-07

Endorsements—nothing to sync

News coverage< 5 articlesGoogle News

Method · bounds + percentage totals + date-order checks