Races · house · 2022 · Connecticut

house · open seat

Joe Courtney vs Mike France

← Connecticut house Connecticut house →

Likely DD +9.1 forecast· 0 polls · 0 markets

Model's final pre-election call · win probabilitypoliagg-v34 · final pre-election call
94% Courtney (D)
6% France (R)
Win probability
Joe Courtney94% (D)
Mike France6% (R)
Modelpoliagg-v34 · final pre-election call
Chance of winning across many simulations of the race — not projected vote share.
R+15R+5TIEDD+5D+15
Predicted margin
Point estimateD +9.1
80% CIR+2.9 → D+21.1
The model’s central margin (D-positive) with its 80% interval — the shaded band on the scale.
Model's predicted final margin D +9.1 · 80% CI R+2.9 → D+21.1
Actual result D+18.1 · backtest (race already called)

Momentum

—

insufficient data

Tipping-point P

0.0%

Decisive for chamber control

Market · D-side

—

Cross-platform consensus

News articles · 30d

—

no recent coverage

Where this race stands

Verified

Lean D · model 94% D

No recent polls or markets for this race. PVI baseline (D+4) suggests Lean D.

The poliagg-v34 ensemble forecasts D+9.1 with an 80% CI ranging from R+2.9 (10th pctile) to D+21.1 (90th pctile), giving D a 94% chance of winning.

CITATIONS · lean-d

Forecast · poliagg-v34

Predicted final margin

D +9.1

80% CI: R +2.9 → D +21.1 · win prob 94%

R+30R+15TIEDD+15D+30

Quality · inputs

Data quality · medium

Polls used	0
Days to election	passed
Actual result	D+18.1
Residual σ	6.00pt
Generated	7/1/2026

Endorsements · 0 total

Source · Wikipedia · 3 candidates with no endorsements yet

DJoe Courtney0 endorsers

no endorsers yet

No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.

RMike France0 endorsers

no endorsers yet

No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.

LWilliam Hall0 endorsers

no endorsers yet

No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.

Money raised · own committees

FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · last filing 2022-11-07

Mike FranceH2CT02161 ↗

Receipts

$880.6K

Disburse

$871.0K

Cash on hand

$9.6K

Debts

$14.3K

Top industries

No industry data.

Top contributors

No contributor data.

Joe CourtneyH2CT02112 ↗

Receipts

$2.0M

Disburse

$2.5M

Cash on hand

$172.1K

Debts

Top industries

Electric utilities$22.4K

Health professionals$12.7K

Top contributors

GENERAL DYNAMICS$22.4K

CROSS SOUND FERRY$17.4K

GENERAL DYNAMICS ELECTRIC BOAT$11.6K

ELECTRIC BOAT$10.8K

ATHENA HEALTH CARE$6.4K

Outside spending · independent expenditures

FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · 24/48-hr IE reports

IE total

$499.4K

D side

$28.5K · 6%

R side

$470.9K · 94%

Top spender

SEAL PAC USA

For / against split

For Courtney $28.5K

Against Courtney $22.3K

For France $448.6K

Spender	Side	Amount	Share	Target
SEAL PAC USA	R	$214.0K	43%	for Mike France
NORTHEAST ACTION	R	$202.6K	41%	for Mike France
NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS POLITICAL ACTION COMMITTEE	D	$28.5K	6%	for Joe Courtney
CPAC ACTION PAC	R	$22.3K	4%	against Joe Courtney
SPECIAL OPERATIONS FOR AMERICA	R	$21.0K	4%	for Mike France
JOBS OPPORTUNITY AND FREEDOM POLITICAL ACTION COMMITTEE - JOFPAC	R	$11.0K	2%	for Mike France
SIERRA CLUB INDEPENDENT ACTION	D	$10	0%	for Joe Courtney
PLANNED PARENTHOOD VOTES	D	$8.68	0%	for Joe Courtney

Editorial ratings · 6 raters

Cook · Sabato · Inside Elections · 538 · DDHQ et al.

Safe D2

Likely D4

The Cook Political Report

Likely D

May 25

DDHQ

Likely D

Jul 19

The Economist

Likely D

Oct 31

538

Safe D

Oct 29

Inside Elections

Safe D

Apr 19

Sabato's Crystal Ball

Likely D

Feb 15

Demographic crosstabs

age · education · race · gender

No demographic crosstabs published for this race yet. Most pollsters release only topline numbers; subgroup breakdowns (age, education, race, gender) appear here when a pollster publishes them.

Rating timeline

May 15, 2026Likely Dmodel

May 11, 2026Safe Dmodel

Verification trail

Polls verified0 / 0deterministic

Polls flagged—none

Markets ingested0 platformsnone listed

FEC filingssyncedcommittee + IE · 2022-11-07

Endorsements—nothing to sync

News coverage< 5 articlesGoogle News

Method · bounds + percentage totals + date-order checks