Races · house · 2022 · Colorado

house · open seat

Yadira Caraveo vs Barbara Kirkmeyer

← Colorado house Connecticut house →

Likely DD +7.4 forecast· 0 polls · 0 markets

Model's final pre-election call · win probabilitypoliagg-v34 · final pre-election call
89% Caraveo (D)
11% Kirkmeyer (R)
Win probability
Yadira Caraveo89% (D)
Barbara Kirkmeyer11% (R)
Modelpoliagg-v34 · final pre-election call
Chance of winning across many simulations of the race — not projected vote share.
R+15R+5TIEDD+5D+15
Predicted margin
Point estimateD +7.4
80% CIR+4.6 → D+19.4
The model’s central margin (D-positive) with its 80% interval — the shaded band on the scale.
Model's predicted final margin D +7.4 · 80% CI R+4.6 → D+19.4
Actual result D+0.7 · backtest (race already called)

Momentum

—

insufficient data

Tipping-point P

0.0%

Decisive for chamber control

Market · D-side

—

Cross-platform consensus

News articles · 30d

—

no recent coverage

Where this race stands

Verified

Tossup · model 89% D

No recent polls or markets for this race. PVI baseline (R+0) suggests Tossup.

The poliagg-v34 ensemble forecasts D+7.4 with an 80% CI ranging from R+4.6 (10th pctile) to D+19.4 (90th pctile), giving D a 89% chance of winning.

CITATIONS · tossup

Forecast · poliagg-v34

Predicted final margin

D +7.4

80% CI: R +4.6 → D +19.4 · win prob 89%

R+30R+15TIEDD+15D+30

Quality · inputs

Data quality · medium

Polls used	0
Days to election	passed
Actual result	D+0.7
Residual σ	6.00pt
Generated	7/1/2026

Endorsements · 0 total

Source · Wikipedia · 3 candidates with no endorsements yet

DYadira Caraveo0 endorsers

no endorsers yet

No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.

RBarbara Kirkmeyer0 endorsers

no endorsers yet

No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.

LEric Mulder0 endorsers

no endorsers yet

No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.

Money raised · own committees

FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · last filing 2022-12-13

Yadira CaraveoH2CO08020 ↗

Receipts

$3.6M

Disburse

$3.5M

Cash on hand

$17.5K

Debts

Top industries

Education$29.3K

Internet$7.2K

Health professionals$6.7K

Securities & investment$5.8K

Top contributors

UNIVERSITY OF COLORADO$23.4K

COLORADO$11.6K

NOT-EMPLOYED$9.2K

GOOGLE$7.2K

MASS GENERAL HOSPITAL$6.7K

Barbara KirkmeyerH2CO08079 ↗

No FEC committee filing yet.

Top industries

No industry data.

Top contributors

No contributor data.

Outside spending · independent expenditures

FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · 24/48-hr IE reports

IE total

$26.7M

D side

$11.8M · 44%

R side

$14.9M · 56%

Top spender

NRCC

For / against split

For Caraveo $3.1M

Against Kirkmeyer $8.7M

Against Caraveo $13.5M

For Kirkmeyer $1.4M

Spender	Side	Amount	Share	Target
NRCC	R	$10.4M	39%	against Yadira Caraveo
HOUSE MAJORITY PAC	D	$7.9M	30%	against Barbara Kirkmeyer
CONGRESSIONAL LEADERSHIP FUND	R	$2.8M	11%	against Yadira Caraveo
FAIR SHARE ACTION	D	$1.5M	6%	for Yadira Caraveo
LCV VICTORY FUND	D	$1.3M	5%	for Yadira Caraveo
AMERICANS FOR PROSPERITY ACTION, INC. (AFP ACTION) DBA CVA ACTION AND DBA LIBRE ACTION	R	$854.2K	3%	for Barbara Kirkmeyer
CHC BOLD PAC	D	$527.3K	2%	against Barbara Kirkmeyer
AMERICAN LEADERSHIP PAC	R	$319.7K	1%	for Barbara Kirkmeyer
DCCC	D	$200.0K	1%	against Barbara Kirkmeyer
LATINO VICTORY FUND	D	$146.7K	1%	for Yadira Caraveo

Editorial ratings · 6 raters

Cook · Sabato · Inside Elections · 538 · DDHQ et al.

Tossup1

Tilt R1

Lean R3

Likely R1

The Cook Political Report

Tossup

Nov 28

DDHQ

Lean R

Oct 17

The Economist

Lean R

Nov 4

538

Likely R

Oct 19

Inside Elections

Tilt R

Nov 2

Sabato's Crystal Ball

Lean R

Nov 1

Demographic crosstabs

age · education · race · gender

No demographic crosstabs published for this race yet. Most pollsters release only topline numbers; subgroup breakdowns (age, education, race, gender) appear here when a pollster publishes them.

Rating timeline

Jul 1, 2026Likely Dmodel

Jun 22, 2026Tilt Dmodel

May 11, 2026Likely Dmodel

Verification trail

Polls verified0 / 0deterministic

Polls flagged—none

Markets ingested0 platformsnone listed

FEC filingssyncedcommittee + IE · 2022-12-13

Endorsements—nothing to sync

News coverage< 5 articlesGoogle News

Method · bounds + percentage totals + date-order checks