Races · house · 2022 · Colorado

house · open seat

Brittany Pettersen vs Erik Aadland

← Colorado house Colorado house →

Safe DD +18.0 forecast· 0 polls · 0 markets

Model's final pre-election call · win probabilitypoliagg-v34 · final pre-election call
99% Pettersen (D)
1% Aadland (R)
Win probability
Brittany Pettersen99% (D)
Erik Aadland1% (R)
Modelpoliagg-v34 · final pre-election call
Chance of winning across many simulations of the race — not projected vote share.
R+15R+5TIEDD+5D+15
Predicted margin
Point estimateD +18.0
80% CID+6.0 → D+30.0
The model’s central margin (D-positive) with its 80% interval — the shaded band on the scale.
Model's predicted final margin D +18.0 · 80% CI D+6.0 → D+30.0
Actual result D+15.0 · backtest (race already called)

Momentum

—

insufficient data

Tipping-point P

0.0%

Decisive for chamber control

Market · D-side

—

Cross-platform consensus

News articles · 30d

—

no recent coverage

Where this race stands

Verified

Likely D · model 99% D

No recent polls or markets for this race. PVI baseline (D+8) suggests Likely D.

The poliagg-v34 ensemble forecasts D+18.0 with an 80% CI ranging from D+6.0 (10th pctile) to D+30.0 (90th pctile), giving D a 99% chance of winning.

CITATIONS · likely-d

Forecast · poliagg-v34

Predicted final margin

D +18.0

80% CI: D +6.0 → D +30.0 · win prob 99%

R+30R+15TIEDD+15D+30

Quality · inputs

Data quality · medium

Polls used	0
Days to election	passed
Actual result	D+15.0
Residual σ	6.00pt
Generated	7/1/2026

Endorsements · 0 total

Source · Wikipedia · 2 candidates with no endorsements yet

DBrittany Pettersen0 endorsers

no endorsers yet

No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.

RErik Aadland0 endorsers

no endorsers yet

No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.

Money raised · own committees

FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · last filing 2022-12-13

Erik AadlandH2CO07170 ↗

Receipts

$1.5M

Disburse

$1.5M

Cash on hand

$27.2K

Debts

$69.4K

Top industries

No industry data.

Top contributors

PERICLE COMMUNICATIONS CO.$11.6K

FINANCIAL PLANNING HQ$6.7K

CASTLELINK LLC$6.0K

VP MARKETING$5.8K

BLAZING HOG INC$5.8K

Brittany PettersenH8CO07045 ↗

Receipts

$2.9M

Disburse

$2.9M

Cash on hand

$8.4K

Debts

Top industries

Education$31.5K

Govt employees$19.5K

Computers / electronics$13.3K

Lawyers / law firms$11.3K

Top contributors

STATE OF COLORADO$19.5K

UNIVERSITY OF COLORADO$17.0K

MICROSOFT CORP$13.3K

SCHUSTERMAN FAMILY PHILANTHROPIES$11.6K

FRANKLIN D AZAR & ASSOCIATES PC$11.6K

Outside spending · independent expenditures

FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · 24/48-hr IE reports

IE total

$3.9M

D side

$2.1M · 54%

R side

$1.8M · 46%

Top spender

FOR COLORADO'S FUTURE

For / against split

For Pettersen $694.7K

Against Aadland $1.4M

Against Pettersen $795.1K

For Aadland $993.2K

Spender	Side	Amount	Share	Target
FOR COLORADO'S FUTURE	R	$1.7M	43%	for Erik Aadland
HOUSE MAJORITY PAC	D	$1.4M	35%	against Erik Aadland
FAIR SHARE ACTION	D	$487.7K	13%	for Brittany Pettersen
WEB3 FORWARD	D	$213.0K	6%	for Brittany Pettersen
SEAL PAC SUPPORTING ELECTING AMERICAN LEADERS PAC	R	$40.0K	1%	for Erik Aadland
COLORADO DAWN	R	$36.0K	1%	for Erik Aadland
CPAC ACTION PAC	R	$31.0K	1%	against Brittany Pettersen
WORKING AMERICA	D	$16.1K	0%	for Brittany Pettersen

Editorial ratings · 6 raters

Cook · Sabato · Inside Elections · 538 · DDHQ et al.

Likely D4

Lean D2

The Cook Political Report

Likely D

Jan 25

DDHQ

Lean D

Jul 19

The Economist

Likely D

Sep 27

538

Likely D

Jun 29

Inside Elections

Likely D

Nov 21

Sabato's Crystal Ball

Lean D

Jul 27

Demographic crosstabs

age · education · race · gender

No demographic crosstabs published for this race yet. Most pollsters release only topline numbers; subgroup breakdowns (age, education, race, gender) appear here when a pollster publishes them.

Rating timeline

May 11, 2026Safe Dmodel

Verification trail

Polls verified0 / 0deterministic

Polls flagged—none

Markets ingested0 platformsnone listed

FEC filingssyncedcommittee + IE · 2022-12-13

Endorsements—nothing to sync

News coverage< 5 articlesGoogle News

Method · bounds + percentage totals + date-order checks