Races · house · 2022 · Colorado

house · open seat

Joe Neguse vs Marshall Dawson

← Colorado house Colorado house →

Safe DD +35.2 forecast· 0 polls · 0 markets

Model's final pre-election call · win probabilitypoliagg-v34 · final pre-election call
99% Neguse (D)
1% Dawson (R)
Win probability
Joe Neguse99% (D)
Marshall Dawson1% (R)
Modelpoliagg-v34 · final pre-election call
Chance of winning across many simulations of the race — not projected vote share.
R+15R+5TIEDD+5D+15
Predicted margin
Point estimateD +35.2
80% CID+23.2 → D+47.2
The model’s central margin (D-positive) with its 80% interval — the shaded band on the scale.
Model's predicted final margin D +35.2 · 80% CI D+23.2 → D+47.2
Actual result D+42.0 · backtest (race already called)

Momentum

—

insufficient data

Tipping-point P

0.0%

Decisive for chamber control

Market · D-side

—

Cross-platform consensus

News articles · 30d

—

no recent coverage

Where this race stands

Verified

Safe D · model 99% D

No recent polls or markets for this race. PVI baseline (D+20) suggests Safe D.

The poliagg-v34 ensemble forecasts D+35.2 with an 80% CI ranging from D+23.2 (10th pctile) to D+47.2 (90th pctile), giving D a 99% chance of winning.

CITATIONS · safe-d

Forecast · poliagg-v34

Predicted final margin

D +35.2

80% CI: D +23.2 → D +47.2 · win prob 99%

R+60R+30TIEDD+30D+60

Quality · inputs

Data quality · medium

Polls used	0
Days to election	passed
Actual result	D+42.0
Residual σ	6.00pt
Generated	7/1/2026

Endorsements · 0 total

Source · Wikipedia · 4 candidates with no endorsements yet

DJoe Neguse0 endorsers

no endorsers yet

No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.

RMarshall Dawson0 endorsers

no endorsers yet

No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.

ISteve Yurash0 endorsers

no endorsers yet

No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.

CGary L. Nation0 endorsers

no endorsers yet

No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.

Money raised · own committees

FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · last filing 2022-11-28

Joe NeguseH8CO02160 ↗

Receipts

$2.4M

Disburse

$1.4M

Cash on hand

$1.9M

Debts

Top industries

Lawyers / law firms$18.1K

Govt employees$7.2K

Top contributors

BROWNSTEIN HYATT FARBER SCHRECK$23.8K

HOLLAND & HART LLP$18.1K

HOLLAND & HART$15.4K

DISH NETWORK$11.6K

FRANKLIN D. AZAR & ASSOCIATES$11.6K

Marshall DawsonOWN COMMITTEE

Receipts

$48.9K

Disburse

$34.9K

Cash on hand

$14.1K

Debts

Top industries

No industry data.

Top contributors

ENGINEER$1.5K

COLORADO HORSE RESCUE$1.0K

SHERMAN & HOWARD$1.0K

N. WELD PRODUCE CO.$1.0K

TERADATA$500

Steve YurashOWN COMMITTEE

Receipts

$31.6K

Disburse

$41.3K

Cash on hand

$781.51

Debts

$38.0K

Top industries

Computers / electronics$250

Top contributors

INTEL CORP$250

Outside spending · independent expenditures

FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · 24/48-hr IE reports

IE total

$391.98

D side

$391.98 · 100%

R side

$0 · 0%

Top spender

MOVEON.ORG POLITICA…

For / against split

For Neguse $391.98

Spender	Side	Amount	Share	Target
MOVEON.ORG POLITICAL ACTION	D	$286.88	73%	for Joe Neguse
ENVIRONMENT AMERICA ACTION FUND	D	$55.42	14%	for Joe Neguse
SEIU COPE (SERVICE EMPLOYEES INTERNATIONAL UNION COMMITTEE ON POLITICAL EDUCATION)	D	$21	5%	for Joe Neguse
SIERRA CLUB INDEPENDENT ACTION	D	$10	3%	for Joe Neguse
GIVEGREEN UNITED ACTION	D	$10	3%	for Joe Neguse

Editorial ratings · 6 raters

Cook · Sabato · Inside Elections · 538 · DDHQ et al.

Safe D6

The Cook Political Report

Safe D

Nov 28

DDHQ

Safe D

Jul 19

The Economist

Safe D

Sep 27

538

Safe D

Jun 29

Inside Elections

Safe D

Nov 21

Sabato's Crystal Ball

Safe D

Nov 16

Demographic crosstabs

age · education · race · gender

No demographic crosstabs published for this race yet. Most pollsters release only topline numbers; subgroup breakdowns (age, education, race, gender) appear here when a pollster publishes them.

Rating timeline

Jun 22, 2026Safe Dmodel

May 15, 2026Likely Dmodel

May 11, 2026Safe Dmodel

Verification trail

Polls verified0 / 0deterministic

Polls flagged—none

Markets ingested0 platformsnone listed

FEC filingssyncedcommittee + IE · 2022-11-28

Endorsements—nothing to sync

News coverage< 5 articlesGoogle News

Method · bounds + percentage totals + date-order checks