Races · house · 2022 · CA
house · open seat
Josh Harder vs Tom Patti
Caution · early warning
Editorial raters moved while polling has gone quiet
The last rating change here was 1d ago, but only 0 polls have landed in the last 60 days. When raters move and pollsters don't, the rating shift may be running ahead of the data. Watch for a late-cycle correction in either direction.
Where this race stands
Verified Tossup
tossup
Money in this race
FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · last filing 2022-12-20Total IE spending
$278K
For candidates
$110K
Against candidates
$168K
Latest filing: 12/20/2022
Source: FEC Schedule E
Source: FEC Schedule E
Tom Patti (R)
$0 for ·
$168K against
Cash on hand
$43K
Total raised (cycle)
$1.6M
Total spent
$1.6M
Debts
$67K
Source: FEC
- $168K against HOUSE MAJORITY PAC Super PAC
Josh Harder (D)
$110K for ·
$0 against
Cash on hand
$1.1M
Total raised (cycle)
$6.6M
Total spent
$8.9M
Debts
$0
Source: FEC
- $51K for NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS POLITICAL ACTION COMMITTEE PAC
- $24K for IMMIGRANT POWER PAC Super PAC
- $16K for WORKING AMERICA PAC
- $5K for ACTIVATE AMERICA Super PAC
- $5K for HUMANE SOCIETY LEGISLATIVE FUND PAC
Independent expenditures from FEC Schedule E. "For" = pro-candidate ads / mail / digital. "Against" = anti-candidate. Excludes candidate-committee spending and state-level filings (governor races aren't covered here — they file with state agencies).
last poll — last market quote — rating computed 1 day ago
Rating history (1 change)
- 5/6/2026 Tossup via pvi