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Races · house · 2022 · California
house · open seat

Josh Harder vs Tom Patti

← California houseCalifornia house →
Likely DD +6.8 forecast· 0 polls · 0 markets
Model's final pre-election call · win probabilitypoliagg-v34 · final pre-election call
87% Harder (D)
13% Patti (R)
R+15R+5TIEDD+5D+15
Model's predicted final margin D +6.8 · 80% CI R+5.2 → D+18.9
Actual result D+9.6 · backtest (race already called)
Momentum
—
insufficient data
Tipping-point P
0.0%
Decisive for chamber control
Market · D-side
—
Cross-platform consensus
News articles · 30d
—
no recent coverage
Where this race stands
Verified

Tossup · model 87% D

No recent polls or markets for this race. PVI baseline (D+1) suggests Tossup.

The poliagg-v34 ensemble forecasts D+6.8 with an 80% CI ranging from R+5.2 (10th pctile) to D+18.9 (90th pctile), giving D a 87% chance of winning.

CITATIONS · tossup
Forecast · poliagg-v34
Predicted final margin
D +6.8
80% CI: R +5.2 → D +18.9 · win prob 87%
R+30R+15TIEDD+15D+30
Quality · inputs
Data quality · medium
Polls used0
Days to electionpassed
Actual resultD+9.6
Residual σ6.00pt
Generated7/1/2026

Endorsements · 0 total

Source · Wikipedia · 2 candidates with no endorsements yet
DJosh Harder0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.
RTom Patti0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.

Money raised · own committees

FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · last filing 2022-12-20
Tom PattiH2CA09139 ↗
Receipts
$1.6M
Disburse
$1.6M
Cash on hand
$42.8K
Debts
$67.3K
Top industries
Crop production$14.5K
Real estate$7.8K
Top contributors
RISHWAIN & RISHWAIN$12.0K
SANDHU FAMILY ENTERPRISES LLC$8.7K
BROCCHINI FARMS$8.7K
HOFFMAN BROTHERS HARVESTING, INC.$8.0K
VFT PROPERTIES LP$7.8K
Josh HarderH8CA10126 ↗
Receipts
$6.6M
Disburse
$8.9M
Cash on hand
$1.1M
Debts
$0
Top industries
Lawyers / law firms$54.5K
Internet$47.7K
Education$37.4K
Top contributors
BESSEMER VENTURE PARTNERS$60.0K
GOOGLE$47.7K
STANFORD UNIVERSITY$37.4K
COOLEY LLP$34.8K
UC BERKELEY$20.4K

Outside spending · independent expenditures

FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · 24/48-hr IE reports
IE total
$277.7K
D side
$277.7K · 100%
R side
$0 · 0%
Top spender
HOUSE MAJORITY PAC
For / against split
For Harder $109.8K
Against Patti $167.9K
SpenderSideAmountShareTarget
HOUSE MAJORITY PACD$167.9K60%against Tom Patti
NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS POLITICAL ACTION COMMITTEED$51.0K18%for Josh Harder
IMMIGRANT POWER PACD$23.9K9%for Josh Harder
WORKING AMERICAD$16.1K6%for Josh Harder
ACTIVATE AMERICAD$5.2K2%for Josh Harder
HUMANE SOCIETY LEGISLATIVE FUNDD$5.1K2%for Josh Harder

Editorial ratings · 4 raters

Cook · Sabato · Inside Elections · 538 · DDHQ et al.
Likely D2
Lean D2
The Cook Political Report
Lean D
Oct 31
DDHQ
Likely D
Jul 19
Inside Elections
Likely D
Jul 14
Sabato's Crystal Ball
Lean D
Jul 12

Demographic crosstabs

age · education · race · gender
No demographic crosstabs published for this race yet. Most pollsters release only topline numbers; subgroup breakdowns (age, education, race, gender) appear here when a pollster publishes them.
Rating timeline
May 15, 2026Likely Dmodel
Verification trail
Polls verified0 / 0deterministic
Polls flagged—none
Markets ingested0 platformsnone listed
FEC filingssyncedcommittee + IE · 2022-12-20
Endorsements—nothing to sync
News coverage< 5 articlesGoogle News
Method · bounds + percentage totals + date-order checks