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Races · house · 2022 · California
PrimariesThis seat also has primary-season views:Democratic primary·Republican primary
house · open seat

Mike Levin vs Lisa Bartlett

← California houseCalifornia house →
Likely DD +10.4 forecast· 0 polls · 0 markets
Model's final pre-election call · win probabilitypoliagg-v34 · final pre-election call
96% Levin (D)
4% Bartlett (R)
R+15R+5TIEDD+5D+15
Model's predicted final margin D +10.4 · 80% CI R+1.6 → D+22.4
Actual result D+5.3 · backtest (race already called)
Momentum
—
insufficient data
Tipping-point P
0.0%
Decisive for chamber control
Market · D-side
—
Cross-platform consensus
News articles · 30d
—
no recent coverage
Where this race stands
Verified

Lean D · model 96% D

No recent polls or markets for this race. PVI baseline (D+4) suggests Lean D.

The poliagg-v34 ensemble forecasts D+10.4 with an 80% CI ranging from R+1.6 (10th pctile) to D+22.4 (90th pctile), giving D a 96% chance of winning.

CITATIONS · lean-d
Forecast · poliagg-v34
Predicted final margin
D +10.4
80% CI: R +1.6 → D +22.4 · win prob 96%
R+30R+15TIEDD+15D+30
Quality · inputs
Data quality · medium
Polls used0
Days to electionpassed
Actual resultD+5.3
Residual σ6.00pt
Generated7/1/2026

Endorsements · 0 total

Source · Wikipedia · 2 candidates with no endorsements yet
RLisa Bartlett0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.
DMike Levin0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.

Money raised · own committees

FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · last filing 2022-12-20
Mike LevinH8CA49058 ↗
Receipts
$5.1M
Disburse
$6.5M
Cash on hand
$135.5K
Debts
$5.0K
Top industries
Internet$17.7K
Education$8.5K
Top contributors
ROYAL BUSINESS BANK$20.3K
GOOGLE$17.7K
SCHUSTERMAN FAMILY PHILANTHROPIES$11.6K
SANDERSON J. RAY DEVELOPMENT$11.6K
B&M HARDWARE CO.$10.5K
Lisa BartlettH2CA49267 ↗
Receipts
$572.0K
Disburse
$566.5K
Cash on hand
$5.6K
Debts
$167.2K
Top industries
Real estate$29.4K
Top contributors
MAJESTIC REALTY CO.$17.8K
PRIMA AIR$11.6K
CLAY LACY$10.7K
FREEMAN HOLDINGS GROUP$9.8K
BELLWETHER FINANCIAL GROUP$8.7K

Outside spending · independent expenditures

FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · 24/48-hr IE reports
IE total
$7.0M
D side
$1.1M · 16%
R side
$5.9M · 84%
Top spender
CONGRESSIONAL LEADE…
For / against split
For Levin $1.1M
Against Levin $5.8M
For Bartlett $96.2K
SpenderSideAmountShareTarget
CONGRESSIONAL LEADERSHIP FUNDR$5.5M78%against Mike Levin
DCCCD$431.8K6%for Mike Levin
HUMANE SOCIETY LEGISLATIVE FUNDD$287.5K4%for Mike Levin
NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS POLITICAL ACTION COMMITTEED$280.3K4%for Mike Levin
DEFENDING MAIN STREET SUPERPAC INC.R$233.8K3%against Mike Levin
USA LEADERSHIP FUNDR$96.2K1%for Lisa Bartlett

Editorial ratings · 5 raters

Cook · Sabato · Inside Elections · 538 · DDHQ et al.
Likely D1
Lean D1
Tilt D1
Tossup1
Lean R1
The Cook Political Report
Tossup
Oct 24
DDHQ
Likely D
Jul 19
The Economist
Lean D
Oct 3
Inside Elections
Tilt D
Nov 2
Sabato's Crystal Ball
Lean R
Nov 6

Demographic crosstabs

age · education · race · gender
No demographic crosstabs published for this race yet. Most pollsters release only topline numbers; subgroup breakdowns (age, education, race, gender) appear here when a pollster publishes them.
Rating timeline
May 15, 2026Likely Dmodel
Verification trail
Polls verified0 / 0deterministic
Polls flagged—none
Markets ingested0 platformsnone listed
FEC filingssyncedcommittee + IE · 2022-12-20
Endorsements—nothing to sync
News coverage< 5 articlesGoogle News
Method · bounds + percentage totals + date-order checks