Races · house · 2022 · California

house · open seat

California house

← California house California house →

Likely DD +7.7 forecast· 0 polls · 0 markets

Model's final pre-election call · win probabilitypoliagg-v34 · final pre-election call
90% (D)
10% (R)
Win probability
Democrat90% (D)
Republican10% (R)
Modelpoliagg-v34 · final pre-election call
Chance of winning across many simulations of the race — not projected vote share.
R+15R+5TIEDD+5D+15
Predicted margin
Point estimateD +7.7
80% CIR+4.3 → D+19.7
The model’s central margin (D-positive) with its 80% interval — the shaded band on the scale.
Model's predicted final margin D +7.7 · 80% CI R+4.3 → D+19.7
Actual result Michelle Steel +4.8 · backtest (race already called)

Momentum

—

insufficient data

Tipping-point P

0.0%

Decisive for chamber control

Market · D-side

—

Cross-platform consensus

News articles · 30d

—

no recent coverage

Where this race stands

Verified

Tossup · model 90% D

No recent polls or markets for this race. PVI baseline (D+1) suggests Tossup.

The poliagg-v34 ensemble forecasts D+7.7 with an 80% CI ranging from R+4.3 (10th pctile) to D+19.7 (90th pctile), giving D a 90% chance of winning.

CITATIONS · tossup

Forecast · poliagg-v34

Predicted final margin

D +7.7

80% CI: R +4.3 → D +19.7 · win prob 90%

R+30R+15TIEDD+15D+30

Quality · inputs

Data quality · medium

Polls used	0
Days to election	passed
Actual result	Michelle Steel +4.8
Residual σ	6.00pt
Generated	7/1/2026

Editorial ratings · 3 raters

Cook · Sabato · Inside Elections · 538 · DDHQ et al.

Tossup1

Lean R1

Likely R1

The Cook Political Report

Lean R

Jun 27

The Economist

Tossup

Sep 6

538

Likely R

Oct 19

Demographic crosstabs

age · education · race · gender

No demographic crosstabs published for this race yet. Most pollsters release only topline numbers; subgroup breakdowns (age, education, race, gender) appear here when a pollster publishes them.

Rating timeline

Jul 1, 2026Likely Dmodel

Jun 22, 2026Likely Rmodel

May 15, 2026Tilt Rmodel

Verification trail

Polls verified0 / 0deterministic

Polls flagged—none

Markets ingested0 platformsnone listed

FEC filings—no filings yet

Endorsements—nothing to sync

News coverage< 5 articlesGoogle News

Method · bounds + percentage totals + date-order checks