Races · house · 2022 · California

house · open seat

Will Rollins vs Ken Calvert

← California house California house →

Lean DD +3.6 forecast· 0 polls · 0 markets

Model's final pre-election call · win probabilitypoliagg-v34 · final pre-election call
72% Rollins (D)
28% Calvert (R)
Win probability
Will Rollins72% (D)
Ken Calvert28% (R)
Modelpoliagg-v34 · final pre-election call
Chance of winning across many simulations of the race — not projected vote share.
R+15R+5TIEDD+5D+15
Predicted margin
Point estimateD +3.6
80% CIR+8.4 → D+15.6
The model’s central margin (D-positive) with its 80% interval — the shaded band on the scale.
Model's predicted final margin D +3.6 · 80% CI R+8.4 → D+15.6
Actual result R+4.7 · backtest (race already called)

Momentum

—

insufficient data

Tipping-point P

0.0%

Decisive for chamber control

Market · D-side

—

Cross-platform consensus

News articles · 30d

—

no recent coverage

Where this race stands

Verified

Tilt R · model 72% D

No recent polls or markets for this race. PVI baseline (R+2) suggests Tilt R.

The poliagg-v34 ensemble forecasts D+3.6 with an 80% CI ranging from R+8.4 (10th pctile) to D+15.6 (90th pctile), giving D a 72% chance of winning.

CITATIONS · tilt-r

Forecast · poliagg-v34

Predicted final margin

D +3.6

80% CI: R +8.4 → D +15.6 · win prob 72%

R+30R+15TIEDD+15D+30

Quality · inputs

Data quality · medium

Polls used	0
Days to election	passed
Actual result	R+4.7
Residual σ	6.00pt
Generated	7/1/2026

Endorsements · 0 total

Source · Wikipedia · 2 candidates with no endorsements yet

RKen Calvert0 endorsers

no endorsers yet

No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.

DWill Rollins0 endorsers

no endorsers yet

No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.

Money raised · own committees

FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · last filing 2022-12-20

Will RollinsH2CA42205 ↗

Receipts

$3.8M

Disburse

$3.7M

Cash on hand

$44.9K

Debts

$44.7K

Top industries

Lawyers / law firms$39.9K

Internet$17.0K

Top contributors

QUINN EMANUEL$12.9K

PAUL HASTINGS, LLP$12.2K

QUINN EMANUEL URQUHART & SULLIVAN, LLP$11.9K

EISENHOWER HEALTH$9.6K

GOOGLE, LLC$9.2K

Outside spending · independent expenditures

FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · 24/48-hr IE reports

IE total

$742.9K

D side

$742.9K · 100%

R side

$0 · 0%

Top spender

WELCOMEPAC

For / against split

For Rollins $742.9K

Spender	Side	Amount	Share	Target
WELCOMEPAC	D	$469.9K	63%	for Will Rollins
COMMUNITIES FOR A NEW CALIFORNIA C4	D	$79.3K	11%	for Will Rollins
NO VOTE LEFT BEHIND PAC	D	$68.4K	9%	for Will Rollins
GRASSROOTS ORGANIZING WINS (GROWPAC)	D	$54.6K	7%	for Will Rollins
EQUALITY PROJECT PAC	D	$36.7K	5%	for Will Rollins

Editorial ratings · 5 raters

Cook · Sabato · Inside Elections · 538 · DDHQ et al.

Lean R1

Likely R2

Safe R2

The Cook Political Report

Lean R

Jun 27

The Economist

Likely R

Sep 6

538

Safe R

Oct 31

Inside Elections

Safe R

Aug 24

Sabato's Crystal Ball

Likely R

Jan 3

Demographic crosstabs

age · education · race · gender

No demographic crosstabs published for this race yet. Most pollsters release only topline numbers; subgroup breakdowns (age, education, race, gender) appear here when a pollster publishes them.

Rating timeline

Jul 1, 2026Lean Dmodel

May 15, 2026Likely Rmodel

Verification trail

Polls verified0 / 0deterministic

Polls flagged—none

Markets ingested0 platformsnone listed

FEC filingssyncedcommittee + IE · 2022-12-20

Endorsements—nothing to sync

News coverage< 5 articlesGoogle News

Method · bounds + percentage totals + date-order checks