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Races · house · 2022 · California
house · open seat

Asif Mahmood vs Young Kim

← California houseCalifornia house →
Likely DD +8.8 forecast· 0 polls · 0 markets
Model's final pre-election call · win probabilitypoliagg-v34 · final pre-election call
93% Mahmood (D)
7% Kim (R)
R+15R+5TIEDD+5D+15
Model's predicted final margin D +8.8 · 80% CI R+3.2 → D+20.8
Actual result R+13.7 · backtest (race already called)
Momentum
—
insufficient data
Tipping-point P
0.0%
Decisive for chamber control
Market · D-side
—
Cross-platform consensus
News articles · 30d
—
no recent coverage
Where this race stands
Verified

Tossup · model 93% D

No recent polls or markets for this race. PVI baseline (R+1) suggests Tossup.

The poliagg-v34 ensemble forecasts D+8.8 with an 80% CI ranging from R+3.2 (10th pctile) to D+20.8 (90th pctile), giving D a 93% chance of winning.

CITATIONS · tossup
Forecast · poliagg-v34
Predicted final margin
D +8.8
80% CI: R +3.2 → D +20.8 · win prob 93%
R+30R+15TIEDD+15D+30
Quality · inputs
Data quality · medium
Polls used0
Days to electionpassed
Actual resultR+13.7
Residual σ6.00pt
Generated7/1/2026

Endorsements · 0 total

Source · Wikipedia · 2 candidates with no endorsements yet
RYoung Kim0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.
DAsif Mahmood0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.

Money raised · own committees

FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · last filing 2022-12-20
Young KimH8CA39240 ↗
Receipts
$9.3M
Disburse
$9.3M
Cash on hand
$399.5K
Debts
$65.6K
Top industries
Securities & investment$23.2K
Crop production$13.0K
Top contributors
LOLLICUP$16.3K
CARGILLE SACHER LABS$13.0K
LONGO CUSTOM SERVICE$11.8K
BLACKSTONE$11.6K
STEPHENS INC.$11.6K
Asif MahmoodH2CA40092 ↗
Receipts
$3.7M
Disburse
$3.7M
Cash on hand
$18.8K
Debts
$500
Top industries
Health professionals$9.0K
Top contributors
KAISER$18.4K
GILLSON TRUCKING$17.4K
RNA$11.6K
EMA$11.6K
MIRZA GROUP INC$11.6K

Outside spending · independent expenditures

FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · 24/48-hr IE reports
IE total
$4.9M
D side
$596.4K · 12%
R side
$4.3M · 88%
Top spender
CONGRESSIONAL LEADE…
For / against split
For Mahmood $408.0K
Against Kim $188.4K
Against Mahmood $1.7M
For Kim $2.6M
SpenderSideAmountShareTarget
CONGRESSIONAL LEADERSHIP FUNDR$2.0M40%against Asif Mahmood
NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS CONGRESSIONAL FUNDR$1.8M37%for Young Kim
NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS POLITICAL ACTION COMMITTEER$211.3K4%for Young Kim
DEMOCRATS SERVED$174.0K4%for Asif Mahmood
UNITED WE CAND$158.1K3%for Asif Mahmood
314 ACTION FUNDD$150.0K3%against Young Kim
NATIONAL VICTORY ACTION FUNDR$150.0K3%for Young Kim
PLANNED PARENTHOOD OF ORANGE AND SAN BERNARDINO COUNTIES' COMMUNITY ACTION FUND PACD$34.8K1%for Asif Mahmood
HEALTHCARE FOR ACTION PACD$22.0K0%for Asif Mahmood

Editorial ratings · 3 raters

Cook · Sabato · Inside Elections · 538 · DDHQ et al.
Likely R2
Safe R1
The Cook Political Report
Likely R
Jun 27
The Economist
Likely R
Sep 6
538
Safe R
Jun 29

Demographic crosstabs

age · education · race · gender
No demographic crosstabs published for this race yet. Most pollsters release only topline numbers; subgroup breakdowns (age, education, race, gender) appear here when a pollster publishes them.
Rating timeline
Jul 1, 2026Likely Dmodel
May 15, 2026Likely Rmodel
Verification trail
Polls verified0 / 0deterministic
Polls flagged—none
Markets ingested0 platformsnone listed
FEC filingssyncedcommittee + IE · 2022-12-20
Endorsements—nothing to sync
News coverage< 5 articlesGoogle News
Method · bounds + percentage totals + date-order checks