Races · house · 2022 · California

house · open seat

California house

← California house California house →

Safe DD +56.5 forecast· 0 polls · 0 markets

Model's final pre-election call · win probabilitypoliagg-v34 · final pre-election call
99% Kamlager-Dove (D)
1% (R)
Win probability
Sydney Kamlager-Dove99% (D)
Republican1% (R)
Modelpoliagg-v34 · final pre-election call
Chance of winning across many simulations of the race — not projected vote share.
R+15R+5TIEDD+5D+15
Predicted margin
Point estimateD +56.5
80% CID+44.5 → D+68.5
The model’s central margin (D-positive) with its 80% interval — the shaded band on the scale.
Model's predicted final margin D +56.5 · 80% CI D+44.5 → D+68.5
Actual result Sydney Kamlager +100.0 · backtest (race already called)

Momentum

—

insufficient data

Tipping-point P

0.0%

Decisive for chamber control

Market · D-side

—

Cross-platform consensus

News articles · 30d

—

no recent coverage

Where this race stands

Verified

Safe D · model 99% D

No recent polls or markets for this race. PVI baseline (D+33) suggests Safe D.

The poliagg-v34 ensemble forecasts D+56.5 with an 80% CI ranging from D+44.5 (10th pctile) to D+68.5 (90th pctile), giving D a 99% chance of winning.

CITATIONS · safe-d

Forecast · poliagg-v34

Predicted final margin

D +56.5

80% CI: D +44.5 → D +68.5 · win prob 99%

R+100R+50TIEDD+50D+100

Quality · inputs

Data quality · medium

Polls used	0
Days to election	passed
Actual result	Sydney Kamlager +100.0
Residual σ	6.00pt
Generated	7/1/2026

Endorsements · 0 total

Source · Wikipedia · 1 candidate with no endorsements yet

DSydney Kamlager-Dove0 endorsers

no endorsers yet

No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.

Money raised · own committees

FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · last filing 2022-11-09

Sydney Kamlager-DoveH2CA37304 ↗

Receipts

$1.2M

Disburse

$1.1M

Cash on hand

$101.9K

Debts

$10.1K

Top industries

No industry data.

Top contributors

NOT-EMPLOYED$75.8K

OPTIMUM SEISMIC$8.3K

SORRENTO ITALIAN MARKET$5.8K

AHS$5.8K

KARLA JURVETSON$5.8K

Outside spending · independent expenditures

FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · 24/48-hr IE reports

IE total

$2.7M

D side

$2.7M · 100%

R side

$0 · 0%

Top spender

PROTECT OUR FUTURE PAC

For / against split

For Kamlager-Dove $2.7M

Spender	Side	Amount	Share	Target
PROTECT OUR FUTURE PAC	D	$1.0M	37%	for Sydney Kamlager-Dove
WEB3 FORWARD	D	$882.7K	33%	for Sydney Kamlager-Dove
DAO FOR AMERICA	D	$455.1K	17%	for Sydney Kamlager-Dove
URBAN EMPOWERMENT ACTION PAC, INC.	D	$179.0K	7%	for Sydney Kamlager-Dove
DMFI PAC	D	$176.7K	7%	for Sydney Kamlager-Dove

Editorial ratings · 3 raters

Cook · Sabato · Inside Elections · 538 · DDHQ et al.

Safe D3

The Cook Political Report

Safe D

Dec 20

The Economist

Safe D

Sep 6

Sabato's Crystal Ball

Safe D

Jan 3

Demographic crosstabs

age · education · race · gender

No demographic crosstabs published for this race yet. Most pollsters release only topline numbers; subgroup breakdowns (age, education, race, gender) appear here when a pollster publishes them.

Rating timeline

May 15, 2026Safe Dmodel

Verification trail

Polls verified0 / 0deterministic

Polls flagged—none

Markets ingested0 platformsnone listed

FEC filingssyncedcommittee + IE · 2022-11-09

Endorsements—nothing to sync

News coverage< 5 articlesGoogle News

Method · bounds + percentage totals + date-order checks