Races · house · 2022 · California

house · open seat

California house

← California house California house →

Safe DD +29.7 forecast· 0 polls · 0 markets

Model's final pre-election call · win probabilitypoliagg-v34 · final pre-election call
99% (D)
1% (R)
Win probability
Democrat99% (D)
Republican1% (R)
Modelpoliagg-v34 · final pre-election call
Chance of winning across many simulations of the race — not projected vote share.
R+15R+5TIEDD+5D+15
Predicted margin
Point estimateD +29.7
80% CID+17.7 → D+41.7
The model’s central margin (D-positive) with its 80% interval — the shaded band on the scale.
Model's predicted final margin D +29.7 · 80% CI D+17.7 → D+41.7
Actual result Pete Aguilar +15.4 · backtest (race already called)

Momentum

—

insufficient data

Tipping-point P

0.0%

Decisive for chamber control

Market · D-side

—

Cross-platform consensus

News articles · 30d

—

no recent coverage

Where this race stands

Verified

Lean D · model 99% D

No recent polls or markets for this race. PVI baseline (D+7) suggests Lean D.

The poliagg-v34 ensemble forecasts D+29.7 with an 80% CI ranging from D+17.7 (10th pctile) to D+41.7 (90th pctile), giving D a 99% chance of winning.

CITATIONS · lean-d

Forecast · poliagg-v34

Predicted final margin

D +29.7

80% CI: D +17.7 → D +41.7 · win prob 99%

R+45R+23TIEDD+23D+45

Quality · inputs

Data quality · medium

Polls used	0
Days to election	passed
Actual result	Pete Aguilar +15.4
Residual σ	6.00pt
Generated	7/1/2026

Editorial ratings · 3 raters

Cook · Sabato · Inside Elections · 538 · DDHQ et al.

Safe D3

The Cook Political Report

Safe D

Dec 20

The Economist

Safe D

Sep 6

Sabato's Crystal Ball

Safe D

Jan 3

Demographic crosstabs

age · education · race · gender

No demographic crosstabs published for this race yet. Most pollsters release only topline numbers; subgroup breakdowns (age, education, race, gender) appear here when a pollster publishes them.

Rating timeline

Jul 1, 2026Safe Dmodel

Jun 22, 2026Likely Rmodel

May 15, 2026Lean Rmodel

Verification trail

Polls verified0 / 0deterministic

Polls flagged—none

Markets ingested0 platformsnone listed

FEC filings—no filings yet

Endorsements—nothing to sync

News coverage< 5 articlesGoogle News

Method · bounds + percentage totals + date-order checks