Races · house · 2022 · California

house · open seat

California house

← California house California house →

Lean DD +3.4 forecast· 0 polls · 0 markets

Model's final pre-election call · win probabilitypoliagg-v34 · final pre-election call
72% (D)
28% Jones (R)
Win probability
Democrat72% (D)
Scott Jones28% (R)
Modelpoliagg-v34 · final pre-election call
Chance of winning across many simulations of the race — not projected vote share.
R+15R+5TIEDD+5D+15
Predicted margin
Point estimateD +3.4
80% CIR+8.6 → D+15.4
The model’s central margin (D-positive) with its 80% interval — the shaded band on the scale.
Model's predicted final margin D +3.4 · 80% CI R+8.6 → D+15.4
Actual result R+7.3 · backtest (race already called)

Momentum

—

insufficient data

Tipping-point P

0.0%

Decisive for chamber control

Market · D-side

—

Cross-platform consensus

News articles · 30d

—

no recent coverage

Where this race stands

Verified

Tilt R · model 72% D

No recent polls or markets for this race. PVI baseline (R+2) suggests Tilt R.

The poliagg-v34 ensemble forecasts D+3.4 with an 80% CI ranging from R+8.6 (10th pctile) to D+15.4 (90th pctile), giving D a 72% chance of winning.

CITATIONS · tilt-r

Forecast · poliagg-v34

Predicted final margin

D +3.4

80% CI: R +8.6 → D +15.4 · win prob 72%

R+30R+15TIEDD+15D+30

Quality · inputs

Data quality · medium

Polls used	0
Days to election	passed
Actual result	R+7.3
Residual σ	6.00pt
Generated	7/1/2026

Endorsements · 0 total

Source · Wikipedia · 1 candidate with no endorsements yet

RScott Jones0 endorsers

no endorsers yet

No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.

Money raised · own committees

FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · last filing 2022-09-28

Scott JonesH2CA03140 ↗

Receipts

$567.9K

Disburse

$567.9K

Cash on hand

Debts

Top industries

Crop production$11.6K

Real estate$3.0K

Top contributors

WILMOR$5.8K

CAMPOS BROTHERS$5.8K

HARRIS FARMS INC.$5.8K

HARRIS FARMS, INC.$5.8K

BERCO REDWOOD$5.0K

Outside spending · independent expenditures

FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · 24/48-hr IE reports

IE total

$161.1K

D side

$0 · 0%

R side

$161.1K · 100%

Top spender

CONSTITUTIONAL LEAD…

For / against split

For Jones $161.1K

Spender	Side	Amount	Share	Target
CONSTITUTIONAL LEADERSHIP PAC	R	$86.0K	53%	for Scott Jones
AMERICANS FOR ACCOUNTABILITY IN LEADERSHIP	R	$50.0K	31%	for Scott Jones
CENTER FORWARD COMMITTEE	R	$25.0K	16%	for Scott Jones
COURAGE CALIFORNIA SUPER PAC	R	$122.19	0%	for Scott Jones

Editorial ratings · 3 raters

Cook · Sabato · Inside Elections · 538 · DDHQ et al.

Likely R2

Safe R1

The Cook Political Report

Likely R

Dec 20

The Economist

Likely R

Sep 6

538

Safe R

Oct 18

Demographic crosstabs

age · education · race · gender

No demographic crosstabs published for this race yet. Most pollsters release only topline numbers; subgroup breakdowns (age, education, race, gender) appear here when a pollster publishes them.

Rating timeline

Jul 1, 2026Lean Dmodel

Jun 22, 2026Tossupmodel

May 15, 2026Tilt Dmodel

Verification trail

Polls verified0 / 0deterministic

Polls flagged—none

Markets ingested0 platformsnone listed

FEC filingssyncedcommittee + IE · 2022-09-28

Endorsements—nothing to sync

News coverage< 5 articlesGoogle News

Method · bounds + percentage totals + date-order checks