Races · house · 2022 · California
house · open seat
Quaye Quartey vs Mike Garcia
Where this race stands
VerifiedTilt D · model 84% D
No recent polls or markets for this race. PVI baseline (D+3) suggests Tilt D.
The poliagg-v34 ensemble forecasts D+6.1 with an 80% CI ranging from R+5.9 (10th pctile) to D+18.1 (90th pctile), giving D a 84% chance of winning.
CITATIONS · tilt-d
Forecast · poliagg-v34
Predicted final margin
D +6.1
80% CI: R +5.9 → D +18.1 · win prob 84%
R+30R+15TIEDD+15D+30
Quality · inputs
Data quality · medium
| Polls used | 0 |
| Days to election | passed |
| Actual result | R+6.5 |
| Residual σ | 6.00pt |
| Generated | 7/1/2026 |
Endorsements · 0 total
Source · Wikipedia · 2 candidates with no endorsements yetRMike Garcia0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.
DQuaye Quartey0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.
Money raised · own committees
FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · last filing 2022-12-20Mike GarciaH0CA25105 ↗
Receipts
$7.2M
Disburse
$7.5M
Cash on hand
$116.7K
Debts
$129.2K
Top industries
Real estate$21.0K
Real estate · $21.0K
- Auerbach Commercial Realty · $10.8K
- Cusumano Real Estate Group · $10.2K
Individuals $21.0K · PACs $0
Top contributors
2ND LETTER MAILED$25.5K
2ND REQUEST LETTER MAILED$13.0K
CENTAURUS FINANCIAL INC.$11.6K
JT RESOURCES$11.6K
ENTREPRENEURIAL CORP GROUP$11.6K
Quaye QuarteyH2CA25218 ↗
Receipts
$1.2M
Disburse
$1.2M
Cash on hand
$40.0K
Debts
$0
Top industries
Securities & investment$8.7K
Securities & investment · $8.7K
- Renaissance Technologies · $8.7K
Individuals $8.7K · PACs $0
Lawyers / law firms$7.7K
Lawyers / law firms · $7.7K
- Roxborough Pomerance Nye & Adreani LLP · $7.7K
Individuals $7.7K · PACs $0
Internet$6.5K
Internet · $6.5K
- Google · $6.5K
Individuals $6.5K · PACs $0
Top contributors
RENAISSANCE TECHNOLOGIES$8.7K
ROXBOROUGH POMERANCE NYE & ADREANI LLP$7.7K
GOOGLE$6.5K
MCARTHURGLEN GROUP$5.8K
CENTERVIEW$5.8K
Outside spending · independent expenditures
FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · 24/48-hr IE reportsIE total
$5.1M
D side
$567.1K · 11%
R side
$4.5M · 89%
Top spender
NATIONAL ASSOCIATIO…
| Spender | Side | Amount | Share | Target |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS CONGRESSIONAL FUND super pac · boosts R
| R | $3.6M | 71% | for Mike Garcia |
| AMERICAN LEADERSHIP PAC super pac · boosts R
| R | $385.4K | 8% | for Mike Garcia |
| NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS POLITICAL ACTION COMMITTEE pac · boosts R
| R | $254.8K | 5% | for Mike Garcia |
| DEFEAT SEDITIONISTS super pac · boosts D
| D | $229.3K | 5% | against Mike Garcia |
| VOTEVETS super pac · boosts D
| D | $184.5K | 4% | for Quaye Quartey |
| SEAL PAC SUPPORTING ELECTING AMERICAN LEADERS PAC pac · boosts R
| R | $120.0K | 2% | for Mike Garcia |
Editorial ratings · 6 raters
Cook · Sabato · Inside Elections · 538 · DDHQ et al.Lean D1
Lean D · 1 rater
- The Economist · Oct 15
Tossup2
Tossup · 2 raters
- The Cook Political Report · Dec 20
- DDHQ · Oct 13
Tilt R1
Tilt R · 1 rater
- Inside Elections · Oct 6
Lean R2
Lean R · 2 raters
- 538 · Oct 25
- Sabato's Crystal Ball · Oct 25
The Cook Political Report
TossupDDHQ
TossupThe Economist
Lean D538
Lean RInside Elections
Tilt RSabato's Crystal Ball
Lean RDemographic crosstabs
age · education · race · genderNo demographic crosstabs published for this race yet. Most pollsters release only topline numbers; subgroup breakdowns (age, education, race, gender) appear here when a pollster publishes them.
Rating timeline
Verification trail
Polls verified0 / 0deterministic
Polls flagged—none
Markets ingested0 platformsnone listed
FEC filingssyncedcommittee + IE · 2022-12-20
Endorsements—nothing to sync
News coverage< 5 articlesGoogle News
Method · bounds + percentage totals + date-order checks