Races · house · 2022 · California

house · open seat

California house

← California house California house →

Safe RR +26.8 forecast· 0 polls · 0 markets

Model's final pre-election call · win probabilitypoliagg-v34 · final pre-election call
1% (D)
99% (R)
Win probability
Democrat1% (D)
Republican99% (R)
Modelpoliagg-v34 · final pre-election call
Chance of winning across many simulations of the race — not projected vote share.
R+15R+5TIEDD+5D+15
Predicted margin
Point estimateR +26.8
80% CIR+38.8 → R+14.8
The model’s central margin (D-positive) with its 80% interval — the shaded band on the scale.
Model's predicted final margin R +26.8 · 80% CI R+38.8 → R+14.8
Actual result Jay Obernolte +22.1 · backtest (race already called)

Momentum

—

insufficient data

Tipping-point P

0.0%

Decisive for chamber control

Market · D-side

—

Cross-platform consensus

News articles · 30d

—

no recent coverage

Where this race stands

Verified

Likely R · model 99% R

No recent polls or markets for this race. PVI baseline (R+8) suggests Likely R.

The poliagg-v34 ensemble forecasts R+26.8 with an 80% CI ranging from R+38.8 (10th pctile) to R+14.8 (90th pctile), giving R a 99% chance of winning.

CITATIONS · likely-r

Forecast · poliagg-v34

Predicted final margin

R +26.8

80% CI: R +38.8 → R +14.8 · win prob 1%

R+45R+23TIEDD+23D+45

Quality · inputs

Data quality · medium

Polls used	0
Days to election	passed
Actual result	Jay Obernolte +22.1
Residual σ	6.00pt
Generated	7/1/2026

Editorial ratings · 3 raters

Cook · Sabato · Inside Elections · 538 · DDHQ et al.

Safe R3

The Cook Political Report

Safe R

Dec 20

The Economist

Safe R

Sep 6

Sabato's Crystal Ball

Safe R

Jan 3

Demographic crosstabs

age · education · race · gender

No demographic crosstabs published for this race yet. Most pollsters release only topline numbers; subgroup breakdowns (age, education, race, gender) appear here when a pollster publishes them.

Rating timeline

Jul 1, 2026Safe Rmodel

Jun 22, 2026Likely Rmodel

May 15, 2026Safe Dmodel

Verification trail

Polls verified0 / 0deterministic

Polls flagged—none

Markets ingested0 platformsnone listed

FEC filings—no filings yet

Endorsements—nothing to sync

News coverage< 5 articlesGoogle News

Method · bounds + percentage totals + date-order checks