Races · house · 2022 · CA
house · open seat
Adam Gray vs John Duarte
Caution · early warning
Editorial raters moved while polling has gone quiet
The last rating change here was 1d ago, but only 0 polls have landed in the last 60 days. When raters move and pollsters don't, the rating shift may be running ahead of the data. Watch for a late-cycle correction in either direction.
Where this race stands
Verified Tossup
tossup
Money in this race
FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · last filing 2022-12-20Total IE spending
$32.6M
For candidates
$1.7M
Against candidates
$30.9M
Latest filing: 12/20/2022
Source: FEC Schedule E
Source: FEC Schedule E
John Duarte (R)
$402K for ·
$23.3M against
Cash on hand
$26K
Total raised (cycle)
$2.6M
Total spent
$2.6M
Debts
$119K
Source: FEC
- $12.2M against HOUSE MAJORITY PAC Super PAC
- $10.9M against DCCC Party
- $386K for CONGRESSIONAL LEADERSHIP FUND Super PAC
- $77K against GRASSROOTS ORGANIZING WINS (GROWPAC) Super PAC
- $16K for NATIONAL RIGHT TO LIFE VICTORY FUND Super PAC
Adam Gray (D)
$1.3M for ·
$7.7M against
Cash on hand
$54K
Total raised (cycle)
$2.4M
Total spent
$2.3M
Debts
$61K
Source: FEC
- $7.1M against CONGRESSIONAL LEADERSHIP FUND Super PAC
- $639K for HOUSE MAJORITY PAC Super PAC
- $604K against CAL FREEDOM PAC (MULTI-CANDIDATE CMTE) Super PAC
- $233K for NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS POLITICAL ACTION COMMITTEE PAC
- $164K for COMMUNITIES FOR A NEW CALIFORNIA C4 PAC
Independent expenditures from FEC Schedule E. "For" = pro-candidate ads / mail / digital. "Against" = anti-candidate. Excludes candidate-committee spending and state-level filings (governor races aren't covered here — they file with state agencies).
last poll — last market quote — rating computed 1 day ago
Rating history (1 change)
- 5/6/2026 Tossup via pvi