Races · house · 2022 · California
house · open seat
Adam Gray vs John Duarte
Where this race stands
VerifiedTossup · model 99% D
No recent polls or markets for this race. PVI baseline (R+1) suggests Tossup.
The poliagg-v34 ensemble forecasts D+13.4 with an 80% CI ranging from D+1.4 (10th pctile) to D+25.4 (90th pctile), giving D a 99% chance of winning.
CITATIONS · tossup
Forecast · poliagg-v34
Predicted final margin
D +13.4
80% CI: D +1.4 → D +25.4 · win prob 99%
R+30R+15TIEDD+15D+30
Quality · inputs
Data quality · medium
| Polls used | 0 |
| Days to election | passed |
| Actual result | R+0.4 |
| Residual σ | 6.00pt |
| Generated | 7/1/2026 |
Endorsements · 0 total
Source · Wikipedia · 2 candidates with no endorsements yetDAdam Gray0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.
RJohn Duarte0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.
Money raised · own committees
FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · last filing 2022-12-20John DuarteH2CA13131 ↗
Receipts
$2.6M
Disburse
$2.6M
Cash on hand
$25.5K
Debts
$119.3K
Top industries
Crop production$23.1K
Crop production · $23.1K
- Brocchini Farms · $8.7K
- Slater Farms INC · $8.2K
- Batth Farms · $6.3K
Individuals $23.1K · PACs $0
Top contributors
DUARTE NURSERY INC.$11.6K
BAPU ALMONDS$11.6K
NEEDHAM AG SERVICES$10.8K
RICCI VINEYARDS CARNEROS$8.7K
BASIC RESOURCES, INC.$8.7K
Adam GrayH2CA13115 ↗
Receipts
$2.4M
Disburse
$2.3M
Cash on hand
$54.4K
Debts
$61.1K
Top industries
Crop production$29.1K
Crop production · $29.1K
- Smith Farms · $11.6K
- Joseph Gallo Farms · $11.6K
- Palazzo Farming, INC. · $5.9K
Individuals $29.1K · PACs $0
Internet$7.5K
Internet · $7.5K
- Google · $7.5K
Individuals $7.5K · PACs $0
Lawyers / law firms$5.8K
Lawyers / law firms · $5.8K
- White Brenner LLP · $5.8K
Individuals $5.8K · PACs $0
Top contributors
N.A.$127.2K
MERCED HEART ASSOCIATES$11.6K
SMITH FARMS$11.6K
JOSEPH GALLO FARMS$11.6K
LYONS INVESTMENTS$8.6K
Outside spending · independent expenditures
FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · 24/48-hr IE reportsIE total
$32.6M
D side
$24.6M · 75%
R side
$8.1M · 25%
Top spender
HOUSE MAJORITY PAC
| Spender | Side | Amount | Share | Target |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HOUSE MAJORITY PAC super pac · boosts D
| D | $12.9M | 39% | against John Duarte |
| DCCC party · boosts D
| D | $10.9M | 33% | against John Duarte |
| CONGRESSIONAL LEADERSHIP FUND super pac · boosts R
| R | $7.5M | 23% | against Adam Gray |
| CAL FREEDOM PAC (MULTI-CANDIDATE CMTE) super pac · boosts R
| R | $604.0K | 2% | against Adam Gray |
| NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS POLITICAL ACTION COMMITTEE pac · boosts D
| D | $232.7K | 1% | for Adam Gray |
| COMMUNITIES FOR A NEW CALIFORNIA C4 pac · boosts D
| D | $163.9K | 1% | for Adam Gray |
| GRASSROOTS ORGANIZING WINS (GROWPAC) super pac · boosts D
| D | $76.6K | 0% | against John Duarte |
| NATIONAL RIGHT TO LIFE VICTORY FUND super pac · boosts R
| R | $16.2K | 0% | for John Duarte |
Editorial ratings · 3 raters
Cook · Sabato · Inside Elections · 538 · DDHQ et al.Lean D1
Lean D · 1 rater
- 538 · Oct 18
Tossup1
Tossup · 1 rater
- The Cook Political Report · Jun 27
Lean R1
Lean R · 1 rater
- Sabato's Crystal Ball · Nov 6
The Cook Political Report
Tossup538
Lean DSabato's Crystal Ball
Lean RDemographic crosstabs
age · education · race · genderNo demographic crosstabs published for this race yet. Most pollsters release only topline numbers; subgroup breakdowns (age, education, race, gender) appear here when a pollster publishes them.
Rating timeline
Verification trail
Polls verified0 / 0deterministic
Polls flagged—none
Markets ingested0 platformsnone listed
FEC filingssyncedcommittee + IE · 2022-12-20
Endorsements—nothing to sync
News coverage< 5 articlesGoogle News
Method · bounds + percentage totals + date-order checks