Races · house · 2022 · Arizona

house · open seat

Normington Petts vs Moore Information Group

← Arizona house California house →

TossupD +0.2 forecast· 0 polls · 0 markets

Model's final pre-election call · win probabilitypoliagg-v34 · final pre-election call
51% Petts (D)
49% Group (R)
Win probability
Normington Petts51% (D)
Moore Information Group49% (R)
Modelpoliagg-v34 · final pre-election call
Chance of winning across many simulations of the race — not projected vote share.
R+15R+5TIEDD+5D+15
Predicted margin
Point estimateD +0.2
80% CIR+11.8 → D+12.2
The model’s central margin (D-positive) with its 80% interval — the shaded band on the scale.
Model's predicted final margin D +0.2 · 80% CI R+11.8 → D+12.2
Actual result D+96.0 · backtest (race already called)

Momentum

—

insufficient data

Tipping-point P

0.0%

Decisive for chamber control

Market · D-side

—

Cross-platform consensus

News articles · 30d

—

no recent coverage

Where this race stands

Verified

Safe R · model 51% D

No recent polls or markets for this race. PVI baseline (R+15) suggests Safe R.

The poliagg-v34 ensemble forecasts tied with an 80% CI ranging from R+11.8 (10th pctile) to D+12.2 (90th pctile), giving D a 51% chance of winning.

CITATIONS · safe-r

Forecast · poliagg-v34

Predicted final margin

D +0.2

80% CI: R +11.8 → D +12.2 · win prob 51%

R+30R+15TIEDD+15D+30

Quality · inputs

Data quality · medium

Polls used	0
Days to election	passed
Actual result	D+96.0
Residual σ	6.00pt
Generated	7/1/2026

Endorsements · 0 total

Source · Wikipedia · 2 candidates with no endorsements yet

DNormington Petts0 endorsers

no endorsers yet

No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.

RMoore Information Group0 endorsers

no endorsers yet

No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.

Money raised · own committees

FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · last filing 2022-11-03

Outside spending · independent expenditures

FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · 24/48-hr IE reports

IE total

$275.8K

D side

$123.0K · 45%

R side

$152.8K · 55%

Top spender

THE LINCOLN PROJECT

For / against split

For Gosar $123.0K

Against Gosar $152.8K

Spender	Side	Amount	Share	Target
THE LINCOLN PROJECT	R	$101.6K	37%	against Paul Gosar
GOA VICTORY FUND	D	$68.8K	25%	for Paul Gosar
AMERICANS FOR LIMITED GOVERNMENT	D	$30.0K	11%	for Paul Gosar
REALLY AMERICAN PAC	R	$25.1K	9%	against Paul Gosar
DEFENDING THE REPUBLIC PAC INC.	D	$20.8K	8%	for Paul Gosar

Editorial ratings · 6 raters

Cook · Sabato · Inside Elections · 538 · DDHQ et al.

Safe R6

The Cook Political Report

Safe R

Oct 24

DDHQ

Safe R

Oct 25

The Economist

Safe R

Oct 15

FiveThirtyEight

Safe R

Oct 25

Inside Elections

Safe R

Oct 20

Sabato's Crystal Ball

Safe R

Oct 25

Demographic crosstabs

age · education · race · gender

No demographic crosstabs published for this race yet. Most pollsters release only topline numbers; subgroup breakdowns (age, education, race, gender) appear here when a pollster publishes them.

Rating timeline

Jul 1, 2026Tossupmodel

May 15, 2026Likely Rmodel

May 11, 2026Tilt Rmodel

Verification trail

Polls verified0 / 0deterministic

Polls flagged—none

Markets ingested0 platformsnone listed

FEC filingssyncedcommittee + IE · 2022-11-03

Endorsements—nothing to sync

News coverage< 5 articlesGoogle News

Method · bounds + percentage totals + date-order checks