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Races · house · 2022 · Arizona
PrimariesThis seat also has primary-season views:Democratic primary
house · open seat

Javier Ramos vs Andy Biggs

Safe RR +22.8 forecast· 0 polls · 0 markets
Model's final pre-election call · win probabilitypoliagg-v34 · final pre-election call
1% Ramos (D)
99% Biggs (R)
R+15R+5TIEDD+5D+15
Model's predicted final margin R +22.8 · 80% CI R+34.8 → R+10.8
Actual result R+19.3 · backtest (race already called)
Momentum
insufficient data
Tipping-point P
0.0%
Decisive for chamber control
Market · D-side
Cross-platform consensus
News articles · 30d
no recent coverage
Where this race stands
Verified

Likely R · model 99% R

No recent polls or markets for this race. PVI baseline (R+10) suggests Likely R.

The poliagg-v34 ensemble forecasts R+22.8 with an 80% CI ranging from R+34.8 (10th pctile) to R+10.8 (90th pctile), giving R a 99% chance of winning.

CITATIONS · likely-r
Forecast · poliagg-v34
Predicted final margin
R +22.8
80% CI: R +34.8R +10.8 · win prob 1%
R+45R+23TIEDD+23D+45
Quality · inputs
Data quality · medium
Polls used0
Days to electionpassed
Actual resultR+19.3
Residual σ6.00pt
Generated7/1/2026

Endorsements · 0 total

Source · Wikipedia · 3 candidates with no endorsements yet
RAndy Biggs0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.
DJavier Ramos0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.
IClint Smith0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.

Money raised · own committees

FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · last filing 2022-10-24
Clint SmithH2AZ05173 ↗
Receipts
$197.5K
Disburse
$197.5K
Cash on hand
$0
Debts
$0
Education$3.0K
Lawyers / law firms$2.5K
TREEHOUSE COMMUNITIES$5.8K
ALLKIOSK, INC$5.8K
JAREN CORPORATION$4.5K
GREGORY R. KNIGHT & ASSOCIATES, P.C.$4.0K
DERMATOLOGY FOR ANIMALS$3.9K
Andy BiggsH6AZ05083 ↗
Receipts
$2.1M
Disburse
$2.5M
Cash on hand
$235.5K
Debts
$0
Health professionals$5.8K
Real estate$5.8K
WAY CONSTRUCTION$5.8K
JW CHILDS ASSOC.$5.8K
BILL LUKE CHRYSLER JEEP AND DODGE$5.8K
ULINE$5.8K
21ST CENTURY HEALTHCARE, INC.$5.8K
Javier RamosOWN COMMITTEE
Receipts
$16.6K
Disburse
$15.6K
Cash on hand
$1.0K
Debts
$0
No industry data.
INTRINSIC IMAGERY$500

Outside spending · independent expenditures

FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · 24/48-hr IE reports
IE total
$14.7K
D side
$8.8K · 60%
R side
$5.9K · 40%
Top spender
TURNING POINT PAC INC.
For / against split
Against Biggs $8.8K
For Biggs $5.9K
SpenderSideAmountShareTarget
TURNING POINT PAC INC.D$29.5K201%against Clint Smith
REALLY AMERICAN PACD$8.8K60%against Andy Biggs
HOUSE FREEDOM FUNDR$2.5K17%for Andy Biggs
NATIONAL RIFLE ASSOCIATION OF AMERICA POLITICAL VICTORY FUNDR$1.2K8%for Andy Biggs

Editorial ratings · 6 raters

Cook · Sabato · Inside Elections · 538 · DDHQ et al.
Safe R6
The Cook Political Report
Safe R
Oct 24
DDHQ
Safe R
Oct 25
The Economist
Safe R
Oct 15
FiveThirtyEight
Safe R
Oct 25
Inside Elections
Safe R
Oct 20
Sabato's Crystal Ball
Safe R
Oct 25

Demographic crosstabs

age · education · race · gender
No demographic crosstabs published for this race yet. Most pollsters release only topline numbers; subgroup breakdowns (age, education, race, gender) appear here when a pollster publishes them.
Rating timeline
May 11, 2026Safe Rmodel
Verification trail
Polls verified0 / 0deterministic
Polls flaggednone
Markets ingested0 platformsnone listed
FEC filingssyncedcommittee + IE · 2022-10-24
Endorsementsnothing to sync
News coverage< 5 articlesGoogle News
Method · bounds + percentage totals + date-order checks