Races · house · 2022 · Arizona

house · open seat

Greg Stanton vs Kelly Cooper

← Arizona house Arizona house →

TossupD +0.1 forecast· 0 polls · 0 markets

Model's final pre-election call · win probabilitypoliagg-v34 · final pre-election call
51% Stanton (D)
49% Cooper (R)
Win probability
Greg Stanton51% (D)
Kelly Cooper49% (R)
Modelpoliagg-v34 · final pre-election call
Chance of winning across many simulations of the race — not projected vote share.
R+15R+5TIEDD+5D+15
Predicted margin
Point estimateD +0.1
80% CIR+11.9 → D+12.1
The model’s central margin (D-positive) with its 80% interval — the shaded band on the scale.
Model's predicted final margin D +0.1 · 80% CI R+11.9 → D+12.1
Actual result D+12.2 · backtest (race already called)

Momentum

—

insufficient data

Tipping-point P

0.0%

Decisive for chamber control

Market · D-side

—

Cross-platform consensus

News articles · 30d

—

no recent coverage

Where this race stands

Verified

Lean D · model 51% D

No recent polls or markets for this race. PVI baseline (D+4) suggests Lean D.

The poliagg-v34 ensemble forecasts tied with an 80% CI ranging from R+11.9 (10th pctile) to D+12.1 (90th pctile), giving D a 51% chance of winning.

CITATIONS · lean-d

Forecast · poliagg-v34

Predicted final margin

D +0.1

80% CI: R +11.9 → D +12.1 · win prob 51%

R+30R+15TIEDD+15D+30

Quality · inputs

Data quality · medium

Polls used	0
Days to election	passed
Actual result	D+12.2
Residual σ	6.00pt
Generated	7/1/2026

Endorsements · 0 total

Source · Wikipedia · 2 candidates with no endorsements yet

DGreg Stanton0 endorsers

no endorsers yet

No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.

RKelly Cooper0 endorsers

no endorsers yet

No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.

Money raised · own committees

FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · last filing 2022-12-20

Greg StantonH8AZ09040 ↗

Receipts

$4.3M

Disburse

$5.3M

Cash on hand

$33.3K

Debts

Top industries

Education$13.6K

Health professionals$11.2K

Top contributors

W HOLDINGS$25.3K

SNELL & WILMER$15.1K

ASU$14.5K

BANNER HEALTH$14.5K

ARIZONA STATE UNIVERSITY$13.6K

Kelly CooperH2AZ09191 ↗

Receipts

$2.3M

Disburse

$2.3M

Cash on hand

$58.7K

Debts

$591.8K

Top industries

Education$11.6K

Health professionals$8.7K

Pharma / health products$5.9K

Top contributors

CHARTER ONE$11.6K

QUANTUM ENERGY$11.6K

INVESTMENTS LIMITED$11.6K

21ST CENTURY HEALTHCARE$8.7K

LEDWELL & SON$8.7K

Outside spending · independent expenditures

FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · 24/48-hr IE reports

IE total

$841.6K

D side

$791.2K · 94%

R side

$50.4K · 6%

Top spender

HOUSE MAJORITY PAC

For / against split

For Stanton $594.2K

Against Cooper $197.0K

Against Stanton $7.4K

For Cooper $43.0K

Spender	Side	Amount	Share	Target
HOUSE MAJORITY PAC	D	$324.0K	38%	for Greg Stanton
UNITED WE CAN	D	$245.2K	29%	for Greg Stanton
SEIU COPE (SERVICE EMPLOYEES INTERNATIONAL UNION COMMITTEE ON POLITICAL EDUCATION)	D	$148.3K	18%	against Kelly Cooper
WORKING AMERICA	D	$37.2K	4%	for Greg Stanton
NEXTGEN CLIMATE ACTION COMMITTEE	D	$30.0K	4%	for Greg Stanton
GOA VICTORY FUND	R	$27.3K	3%	for Kelly Cooper
AMERICAN MAJORITY ACTION INC.	R	$15.6K	2%	for Kelly Cooper
HOUSE FREEDOM FUND	R	$58.1	0%	for Kelly Cooper

Editorial ratings · 6 raters

Cook · Sabato · Inside Elections · 538 · DDHQ et al.

Likely D5

Lean D1

The Cook Political Report

Likely D

Oct 24

DDHQ

Likely D

Oct 25

The Economist

Likely D

Oct 15

FiveThirtyEight

Likely D

Oct 25

Inside Elections

Likely D

Oct 20

Sabato's Crystal Ball

Lean D

Oct 25

Demographic crosstabs

age · education · race · gender

No demographic crosstabs published for this race yet. Most pollsters release only topline numbers; subgroup breakdowns (age, education, race, gender) appear here when a pollster publishes them.

Rating timeline

Jul 1, 2026Tossupmodel

Jun 22, 2026Lean Dmodel

May 15, 2026Tossupmodel

May 11, 2026Tilt Dmodel

Verification trail

Polls verified0 / 0deterministic

Polls flagged—none

Markets ingested0 platformsnone listed

FEC filingssyncedcommittee + IE · 2022-12-20

Endorsements—nothing to sync

News coverage< 5 articlesGoogle News

Method · bounds + percentage totals + date-order checks