Races · house · 2022 · Arizona

house · open seat

Ruben Gallego vs Jeff Zink

← Arizona house Arizona house →

Safe DD +42.3 forecast· 0 polls · 0 markets

Model's final pre-election call · win probabilitypoliagg-v34 · final pre-election call
99% Gallego (D)
1% Zink (R)
Win probability
Ruben Gallego99% (D)
Jeff Zink1% (R)
Modelpoliagg-v34 · final pre-election call
Chance of winning across many simulations of the race — not projected vote share.
R+15R+5TIEDD+5D+15
Predicted margin
Point estimateD +42.3
80% CID+30.3 → D+54.3
The model’s central margin (D-positive) with its 80% interval — the shaded band on the scale.
Model's predicted final margin D +42.3 · 80% CI D+30.3 → D+54.3
Actual result D+54.0 · backtest (race already called)

Momentum

—

insufficient data

Tipping-point P

0.0%

Decisive for chamber control

Market · D-side

—

Cross-platform consensus

News articles · 30d

—

no recent coverage

Where this race stands

Verified

Safe D · model 99% D

No recent polls or markets for this race. PVI baseline (D+22) suggests Safe D.

The poliagg-v34 ensemble forecasts D+42.3 with an 80% CI ranging from D+30.3 (10th pctile) to D+54.3 (90th pctile), giving D a 99% chance of winning.

CITATIONS · safe-d

Forecast · poliagg-v34

Predicted final margin

D +42.3

80% CI: D +30.3 → D +54.3 · win prob 99%

R+60R+30TIEDD+30D+60

Quality · inputs

Data quality · medium

Polls used	0
Days to election	passed
Actual result	D+54.0
Residual σ	6.00pt
Generated	7/1/2026

Endorsements · 0 total

Source · Wikipedia · 2 candidates with no endorsements yet

DRuben Gallego0 endorsers

no endorsers yet

No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.

RJeff Zink0 endorsers

no endorsers yet

No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.

Money raised · own committees

FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · last filing 2022-10-18

Ruben GallegoH4AZ07043 ↗

Receipts

$2.9M

Disburse

$2.3M

Cash on hand

$1.3M

Debts

Top industries

Education$6.8K

Lawyers / law firms$6.3K

Health professionals$6.0K

Top contributors

FRANCIS & SONS - MCCLINTOCK, LLC$8.7K

RITOCH-POWEKLL$7.5K

STANFORD$6.8K

WACHTELL LIPTON ROSEN & KATZ$6.3K

MASS GENERAL HOSPITAL$6.0K

Jeff ZinkOWN COMMITTEE

Receipts

$73.8K

Disburse

$54.7K

Cash on hand

$19.1K

Debts

$40.0K

Top industries

TV / movies / music$1.0K

Education$500

Lawyers / law firms$250

Top contributors

PANHANDLE PEDIATRICS$5.7K

DEFCON POWER$3.5K

OWNER$3.0K

SOMETHING SPECIAL LLC$1.5K

SPARK INVESTMENT MANAGEMENT$1.0K

Outside spending · independent expenditures

FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · 24/48-hr IE reports

IE total

$6.0K

D side

$6.0K · 100%

R side

$0 · 0%

Top spender

FEMINIST MAJORITY

For / against split

For Gallego $6.0K

Spender	Side	Amount	Share	Target
FEMINIST MAJORITY	D	$6.0K	100%	for Ruben Gallego
SIERRA CLUB INDEPENDENT ACTION	D	$10	0%	for Ruben Gallego
PLANNED PARENTHOOD VOTES	D	$8.68	0%	for Ruben Gallego

Editorial ratings · 6 raters

Cook · Sabato · Inside Elections · 538 · DDHQ et al.

Safe D6

The Cook Political Report

Safe D

Oct 24

DDHQ

Safe D

Oct 25

The Economist

Safe D

Oct 15

FiveThirtyEight

Safe D

Oct 25

Inside Elections

Safe D

Oct 20

Sabato's Crystal Ball

Safe D

Oct 25

Demographic crosstabs

age · education · race · gender

No demographic crosstabs published for this race yet. Most pollsters release only topline numbers; subgroup breakdowns (age, education, race, gender) appear here when a pollster publishes them.

Rating timeline

May 11, 2026Safe Dmodel

Verification trail

Polls verified0 / 0deterministic

Polls flagged—none

Markets ingested0 platformsnone listed

FEC filingssyncedcommittee + IE · 2022-10-18

Endorsements—nothing to sync

News coverage< 5 articlesGoogle News

Method · bounds + percentage totals + date-order checks