Races · house · 2022 · Arizona

house · open seat

Tom O'Halleran vs Moore Information Group

← Arizona house Arizona house →

Lean RR +4.9 forecast· 0 polls · 0 markets

Model's final pre-election call · win probabilitypoliagg-v34 · final pre-election call
21% O'Halleran (D)
79% Group (R)
Win probability
Tom O'Halleran21% (D)
Moore Information Group79% (R)
Modelpoliagg-v34 · final pre-election call
Chance of winning across many simulations of the race — not projected vote share.
R+15R+5TIEDD+5D+15
Predicted margin
Point estimateR +4.9
80% CIR+16.9 → D+7.1
The model’s central margin (D-positive) with its 80% interval — the shaded band on the scale.
Model's predicted final margin R +4.9 · 80% CI R+16.9 → D+7.1
Actual result R+7.7 · backtest (race already called)

Momentum

—

insufficient data

Tipping-point P

0.0%

Decisive for chamber control

Market · D-side

—

Cross-platform consensus

News articles · 30d

—

no recent coverage

Where this race stands

Verified

Lean R · model 79% R

No recent polls or markets for this race. PVI baseline (R+7) suggests Lean R.

The poliagg-v34 ensemble forecasts R+4.9 with an 80% CI ranging from R+16.9 (10th pctile) to D+7.1 (90th pctile), giving R a 79% chance of winning.

CITATIONS · lean-r

Forecast · poliagg-v34

Predicted final margin

R +4.9

80% CI: R +16.9 → D +7.1 · win prob 21%

R+30R+15TIEDD+15D+30

Quality · inputs

Data quality · medium

Polls used	0
Days to election	passed
Actual result	R+7.7
Residual σ	6.00pt
Generated	7/1/2026

Endorsements · 0 total

Source · Wikipedia · 2 candidates with no endorsements yet

RMoore Information Group0 endorsers

no endorsers yet

No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.

DTom O'Halleran0 endorsers

no endorsers yet

No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.

Money raised · own committees

FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · last filing 2022-11-17

Tom O'HalleranH6AZ01199 ↗

Receipts

$4.3M

Disburse

$4.3M

Cash on hand

$41.5K

Debts

Top industries

Education$10.0K

Lawyers / law firms$6.5K

Securities & investment$5.8K

Top contributors

RYAN SPECIALTY GROUP$17.4K

ARIZONA STATE UNIVERSITY$10.0K

AON BENFIELD$8.7K

PERKINS COIE LLP$6.5K

MIGHTY BUM LLC$6.4K

Outside spending · independent expenditures

FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · 24/48-hr IE reports

IE total

$13.0M

D side

$3.1M · 24%

R side

$9.9M · 76%

Top spender

NRCC

For / against split

For O'Halleran $3.0M

Against Crane $16.8K

Against O'Halleran $8.9M

For Crane $961.9K

Spender	Side	Amount	Share	Target
NRCC	R	$6.9M	53%	against Tom O'Halleran
DCCC	D	$2.4M	18%	for Tom O'Halleran
CONGRESSIONAL LEADERSHIP FUND	R	$891.2K	7%	against Tom O'Halleran
DEFEND US PAC	R	$735.2K	6%	against Tom O'Halleran
NATIONAL SHOOTING SPORTS FOUNDATION, INC. POLITICAL ACTION COMMITTEE (NSSF PAC)	R	$240.0K	2%	against Tom O'Halleran

Editorial ratings · 6 raters

Cook · Sabato · Inside Elections · 538 · DDHQ et al.

Lean R5

Likely R1

The Cook Political Report

Lean R

Oct 24

DDHQ

Lean R

Oct 25

The Economist

Likely R

Oct 31

FiveThirtyEight

Lean R

Oct 25

Inside Elections

Lean R

Oct 20

Sabato's Crystal Ball

Lean R

Oct 25

Demographic crosstabs

age · education · race · gender

No demographic crosstabs published for this race yet. Most pollsters release only topline numbers; subgroup breakdowns (age, education, race, gender) appear here when a pollster publishes them.

Rating timeline

Jun 22, 2026Lean Rmodel

May 15, 2026Tilt Rmodel

May 11, 2026Tossupmodel

Verification trail

Polls verified0 / 0deterministic

Polls flagged—none

Markets ingested0 platformsnone listed

FEC filingssyncedcommittee + IE · 2022-11-17

Endorsements—nothing to sync

News coverage< 5 articlesGoogle News

Method · bounds + percentage totals + date-order checks