Races · house · 2022 · Arizona

house · open seat

Jevin Hodge vs David Schweikert

← Arkansas house Arizona house →

Likely DD +11.1 forecast· 0 polls · 0 markets

Model's final pre-election call · win probabilitypoliagg-v34 · final pre-election call
97% Hodge (D)
3% Schweikert (R)
Win probability
Jevin Hodge97% (D)
David Schweikert3% (R)
Modelpoliagg-v34 · final pre-election call
Chance of winning across many simulations of the race — not projected vote share.
R+15R+5TIEDD+5D+15
Predicted margin
Point estimateD +11.1
80% CIR+0.9 → D+23.1
The model’s central margin (D-positive) with its 80% interval — the shaded band on the scale.
Model's predicted final margin D +11.1 · 80% CI R+0.9 → D+23.1
Actual result R+0.9 · backtest (race already called)

Momentum

—

insufficient data

Tipping-point P

0.0%

Decisive for chamber control

Market · D-side

—

Cross-platform consensus

News articles · 30d

—

no recent coverage

Where this race stands

Verified

Tossup · model 97% D

No recent polls or markets for this race. PVI baseline (R+1) suggests Tossup.

The poliagg-v34 ensemble forecasts D+11.1 with an 80% CI ranging from R+0.9 (10th pctile) to D+23.1 (90th pctile), giving D a 97% chance of winning.

CITATIONS · tossup

Forecast · poliagg-v34

Predicted final margin

D +11.1

80% CI: R +0.9 → D +23.1 · win prob 97%

R+30R+15TIEDD+15D+30

Quality · inputs

Data quality · medium

Polls used	0
Days to election	passed
Actual result	R+0.9
Residual σ	6.00pt
Generated	7/1/2026

Endorsements · 0 total

Source · Wikipedia · 2 candidates with no endorsements yet

RDavid Schweikert0 endorsers

no endorsers yet

No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.

DJevin Hodge0 endorsers

no endorsers yet

No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.

Money raised · own committees

FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · last filing 2022-11-17

David SchweikertH4AZ06045 ↗

Receipts

$2.0M

Disburse

$2.0M

Cash on hand

$52.9K

Debts

$205.2K

Top industries

Computers / electronics$7.0K

Real estate$6.9K

Casinos / gambling$6.4K

Top contributors

NOT IN WORKFORCE$14.5K

ACOUNTABILIT$11.6K

ALLSUP$11.6K

CULLUM HOMES$10.0K

INTEL CORP$7.0K

Jevin HodgeH2AZ06221 ↗

Receipts

$2.6M

Disburse

$2.6M

Cash on hand

$14.8K

Debts

Top industries

Education$19.8K

Health professionals$7.2K

Top contributors

BLACKIVY GROUP$11.6K

ARIZONA STATE UNIVERSITY$10.8K

STANFORD UNIVERSITY$9.0K

PERKINS COIE$8.7K

TERRA MARKETING$7.9K

Outside spending · independent expenditures

FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · 24/48-hr IE reports

IE total

$11.4M

D side

$7.5M · 66%

R side

$3.8M · 34%

Top spender

HOUSE MAJORITY PAC

For / against split

For Hodge $649.7K

Against Schweikert $6.9M

Against Hodge $1.6M

For Schweikert $2.2M

Spender	Side	Amount	Share	Target
HOUSE MAJORITY PAC	D	$6.9M	60%	against David Schweikert
CONGRESSIONAL LEADERSHIP FUND	R	$1.4M	12%	for David Schweikert
HOUSE FREEDOM ACTION	R	$1.0M	9%	against Jevin Hodge
AMERICANS FOR PROSPERITY ACTION, INC. (AFP ACTION) DBA CVA ACTION AND DBA LIBRE ACTION	R	$880.2K	8%	for David Schweikert
CLUB FOR GROWTH ACTION	R	$515.2K	5%	against Jevin Hodge
CONGRESSIONAL BLACK CAUCUS PAC	D	$263.1K	2%	for Jevin Hodge
REVITALIZE ARIZONA PAC	D	$239.1K	2%	for Jevin Hodge

Editorial ratings · 6 raters

Cook · Sabato · Inside Elections · 538 · DDHQ et al.

Tossup1

Lean R3

Likely R1

Safe R1

The Cook Political Report

Tossup

Oct 24

DDHQ

Likely R

Oct 25

The Economist

Lean R

Oct 15

FiveThirtyEight

Safe R

Nov 1

Inside Elections

Lean R

Oct 20

Sabato's Crystal Ball

Lean R

Oct 25

Demographic crosstabs

age · education · race · gender

No demographic crosstabs published for this race yet. Most pollsters release only topline numbers; subgroup breakdowns (age, education, race, gender) appear here when a pollster publishes them.

Rating timeline

Jul 1, 2026Likely Dmodel

Jun 22, 2026Tilt Dmodel

May 15, 2026Tilt Rmodel

May 11, 2026Likely Dmodel

Verification trail

Polls verified0 / 0deterministic

Polls flagged—none

Markets ingested0 platformsnone listed

FEC filingssyncedcommittee + IE · 2022-11-17

Endorsements—nothing to sync

News coverage< 5 articlesGoogle News

Method · bounds + percentage totals + date-order checks