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Races · house · 2022 · Arkansas
house · open seat

Lauren Mallett-Hays vs Steve Womack

← Arkansas houseArkansas house →
Safe RR +27.3 forecast· 0 polls · 0 markets
Model's final pre-election call · win probabilitypoliagg-v34 · final pre-election call
1% Mallett-Hays (D)
99% Womack (R)
R+15R+5TIEDD+5D+15
Model's predicted final margin R +27.3 · 80% CI R+39.3 → R+15.3
Actual result R+30.8 · backtest (race already called)
Momentum
—
insufficient data
Tipping-point P
0.0%
Decisive for chamber control
Market · D-side
—
Cross-platform consensus
News articles · 30d
—
no recent coverage
Where this race stands
Verified

Likely R · model 99% R

No recent polls or markets for this race. PVI baseline (R+13) suggests Likely R.

The poliagg-v34 ensemble forecasts R+27.3 with an 80% CI ranging from R+39.3 (10th pctile) to R+15.3 (90th pctile), giving R a 99% chance of winning.

CITATIONS · likely-r
Forecast · poliagg-v34
Predicted final margin
R +27.3
80% CI: R +39.3 → R +15.3 · win prob 1%
R+45R+23TIEDD+23D+45
Quality · inputs
Data quality · medium
Polls used0
Days to electionpassed
Actual resultR+30.8
Residual σ6.00pt
Generated7/1/2026

Endorsements · 0 total

Source · Wikipedia · 3 candidates with no endorsements yet
RSteve Womack0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.
DLauren Mallett-Hays0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.
LMichael Kalagias0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.

Money raised · own committees

FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · last filing 2021-05-19
Steve WomackH0AR03055 ↗
Receipts
$1.7M
Disburse
$1.1M
Cash on hand
$1.9M
Debts
$0
Top industries
Crop production$11.1K
Oil & gas$7.8K
Top contributors
HOME$33.6K
WALMART$17.8K
RUNWAY GROUP LLC$11.6K
TYSON FOODS$11.1K
BGR GROUP$9.3K

Outside spending · independent expenditures

FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · 24/48-hr IE reports
IE total
$8.68
D side
$8.68 · 100%
R side
$0 · 0%
Top spender
PLANNED PARENTHOOD …
For / against split
Against Womack $8.68
SpenderSideAmountShareTarget
PLANNED PARENTHOOD VOTESD$8.68100%against Steve Womack

Editorial ratings · 6 raters

Cook · Sabato · Inside Elections · 538 · DDHQ et al.
Safe R6
The Cook Political Report
Safe R
Nov 1
DDHQ
Safe R
Jul 19
The Economist
Safe R
Sep 6
538
Safe R
Jun 29
Inside Elections
Safe R
Mar 15
Sabato's Crystal Ball
Safe R
Oct 13

Demographic crosstabs

age · education · race · gender
No demographic crosstabs published for this race yet. Most pollsters release only topline numbers; subgroup breakdowns (age, education, race, gender) appear here when a pollster publishes them.
Rating timeline
May 11, 2026Safe Rmodel
Verification trail
Polls verified0 / 0deterministic
Polls flagged—none
Markets ingested0 platformsnone listed
FEC filingssyncedcommittee + IE · 2021-05-19
Endorsements—nothing to sync
News coverage< 5 articlesGoogle News
Method · bounds + percentage totals + date-order checks