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Races · house · 2022 · Alabama
house · open seat

Phyllis Harvey-Hall vs Barry Moore

← Alabama houseAlabama house →
Lean RR +3.1 forecast· 0 polls · 0 markets
Model's final pre-election call · win probabilitypoliagg-v34 · final pre-election call
30% Harvey-Hall (D)
70% Moore (R)
R+15R+5TIEDD+5D+15
Model's predicted final margin R +3.1 · 80% CI R+15.1 → D+8.9
Actual result R+39.9 · backtest (race already called)
Momentum
—
insufficient data
Tipping-point P
0.0%
Decisive for chamber control
Market · D-side
—
Cross-platform consensus
News articles · 30d
—
no recent coverage
Where this race stands
Verified

Lean D · model 70% R

No recent polls or markets for this race. PVI baseline (D+5) suggests Lean D.

The poliagg-v34 ensemble forecasts R+3.1 with an 80% CI ranging from R+15.1 (10th pctile) to D+8.9 (90th pctile), giving R a 70% chance of winning.

CITATIONS · lean-d
Forecast · poliagg-v34
Predicted final margin
R +3.1
80% CI: R +15.1 → D +8.9 · win prob 30%
R+30R+15TIEDD+15D+30
Quality · inputs
Data quality · medium
Polls used0
Days to electionpassed
Actual resultR+39.9
Residual σ6.00pt
Generated7/1/2026

Endorsements · 0 total

Source · Wikipedia · 3 candidates with no endorsements yet
RBarry Moore0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.
DPhyllis Harvey-Hall0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.
LJonathan Realz0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.

Money raised · own committees

FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · last filing —
Phyllis Harvey-HallOWN COMMITTEE
Receipts
$60.4K
Disburse
$60.2K
Cash on hand
$220.58
Debts
$1.2K
Top industries
Govt employees$1.3K
Top contributors
ALABAMA STATE DEPARTMENT OF ED$1.3K

Editorial ratings · 6 raters

Cook · Sabato · Inside Elections · 538 · DDHQ et al.
Safe R6
The Cook Political Report
Safe R
Nov 4
DDHQ
Safe R
Jul 19
The Economist
Safe R
Sep 6
538
Safe R
Jun 29
Inside Elections
Safe R
Nov 21
Sabato's Crystal Ball
Safe R
Nov 10

Demographic crosstabs

age · education · race · gender
No demographic crosstabs published for this race yet. Most pollsters release only topline numbers; subgroup breakdowns (age, education, race, gender) appear here when a pollster publishes them.
Rating timeline
Jul 1, 2026Lean Rmodel
Jun 22, 2026Tilt Rmodel
May 11, 2026Lean Rmodel
Verification trail
Polls verified0 / 0deterministic
Polls flagged—none
Markets ingested0 platformsnone listed
FEC filingssyncedcommittee + IE
Endorsements—nothing to sync
News coverage< 5 articlesGoogle News
Method · bounds + percentage totals + date-order checks