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Races · house · 2020 · West Virginia
house · open seat

Cathy Kunkel vs Alex Mooney

← West Virginia houseWest Virginia house →
Safe RR +33.8 forecast· 0 polls · 0 markets
Model's final pre-election call · win probabilitypoliagg-v34 · final pre-election call
1% Kunkel (D)
99% Mooney (R)
R+15R+5TIEDD+5D+15
Model's predicted final margin R +33.8 · 80% CI R+45.8 → R+21.8
Actual result R+26.2 · backtest (race already called)
Momentum
—
insufficient data
Tipping-point P
0.0%
Decisive for chamber control
Market · D-side
—
Cross-platform consensus
News articles · 30d
—
no recent coverage
Where this race stands
Verified

Safe R · model 99% R

No recent polls or markets for this race. PVI baseline (R+20) suggests Safe R.

The poliagg-v34 ensemble forecasts R+33.8 with an 80% CI ranging from R+45.8 (10th pctile) to R+21.8 (90th pctile), giving R a 99% chance of winning.

CITATIONS · safe-r
Forecast · poliagg-v34
Predicted final margin
R +33.8
80% CI: R +45.8 → R +21.8 · win prob 1%
R+60R+30TIEDD+30D+60
Quality · inputs
Data quality · medium
Polls used0
Days to electionpassed
Actual resultR+26.2
Residual σ6.00pt
Generated7/1/2026

Endorsements · 0 total

Source · Wikipedia · 2 candidates with no endorsements yet
RAlex Mooney0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.
DCathy Kunkel0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.

Money raised · own committees

FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · last filing 2020-12-07
Alex MooneyH4WV02080 ↗
Receipts
$2.2M
Disburse
$859.9K
Cash on hand
$2.3M
Debts
$0
Top industries
No industry data.
Top contributors
No contributor data.
Cathy KunkelH0WV02179 ↗
Receipts
$649.4K
Disburse
$649.4K
Cash on hand
$0
Debts
$0
Top industries
No industry data.
Top contributors
No contributor data.

Outside spending · independent expenditures

FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · 24/48-hr IE reports
IE total
$7.1K
D side
$1.1K · 16%
R side
$5.9K · 84%
Top spender
GUN OWNERS OF AMERI…
For / against split
For Kunkel $260.4
Against Mooney $865.05
Against Kunkel $454.33
For Mooney $5.5K
SpenderSideAmountShareTarget
GUN OWNERS OF AMERICA, INC.R$4.2K60%for Alex Mooney
WEST VIRGINIANS FOR LIFE INC POLITICAL ACTION COMMITTEER$1.1K15%for Alex Mooney
TOGETHER WE THRIVED$75011%against Alex Mooney
HOUSE FREEDOM FUNDR$658.559%for Alex Mooney
PLANNED PARENTHOOD VOTESD$230.13%against Alex Mooney
FOOD AND WATER ACTIOND$135.352%for Cathy Kunkel
SIERRA CLUB INDEPENDENT ACTIOND$100%for Cathy Kunkel

Editorial ratings · 3 raters

Cook · Sabato · Inside Elections · 538 · DDHQ et al.
Safe R3
The Cook Political Report
Safe R
Nov 1
Inside Elections
Safe R
Oct 27
Sabato's Crystal Ball
Safe R
Nov 1

Demographic crosstabs

age · education · race · gender
No demographic crosstabs published for this race yet. Most pollsters release only topline numbers; subgroup breakdowns (age, education, race, gender) appear here when a pollster publishes them.
Rating timeline
May 11, 2026Safe Rmodel
Verification trail
Polls verified0 / 0deterministic
Polls flagged—none
Markets ingested0 platformsnone listed
FEC filingssyncedcommittee + IE · 2020-12-07
Endorsements—nothing to sync
News coverage< 5 articlesGoogle News
Method · bounds + percentage totals + date-order checks