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Races · house · 2020 · Washington
house · open seat

Carolyn Long vs Jaime Herrera Beutler

← Washington houseWashington house →
Lean RR +4.4 forecast· 0 polls · 0 markets
Model's final pre-election call · win probabilitypoliagg-v34 · final pre-election call
23% Long (D)
77% Beutler (R)
R+15R+5TIEDD+5D+15
Model's predicted final margin R +4.4 · 80% CI R+16.4 → D+7.6
Actual result R+13.0 · backtest (race already called)
Momentum
—
insufficient data
Tipping-point P
0.0%
Decisive for chamber control
Market · D-side
—
Cross-platform consensus
News articles · 30d
—
no recent coverage
Where this race stands
Verified

Tilt R · model 77% R

No recent polls or markets for this race. PVI baseline (R+2) suggests Tilt R.

The poliagg-v34 ensemble forecasts R+4.4 with an 80% CI ranging from R+16.4 (10th pctile) to D+7.6 (90th pctile), giving R a 77% chance of winning.

CITATIONS · tilt-r
Forecast · poliagg-v34
Predicted final margin
R +4.4
80% CI: R +16.4 → D +7.6 · win prob 23%
R+30R+15TIEDD+15D+30
Quality · inputs
Data quality · medium
Polls used0
Days to electionpassed
Actual resultR+13.0
Residual σ6.00pt
Generated7/1/2026

Endorsements · 0 total

Source · Wikipedia · 2 candidates with no endorsements yet
RJaime Herrera Beutler0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.
DCarolyn Long0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.

Money raised · own committees

FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · last filing 2021-09-24
Carolyn LongH8WA03198 ↗
Receipts
$4.2M
Disburse
$4.2M
Cash on hand
$18.0K
Debts
$5.1K
Top industries
No industry data.
Top contributors
No contributor data.
Jaime Herrera BeutlerH0WA03187 ↗
Receipts
$4.6M
Disburse
$4.6M
Cash on hand
$86.2K
Debts
$63.5K
Top industries
No industry data.
Top contributors
No contributor data.

Outside spending · independent expenditures

FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · 24/48-hr IE reports
IE total
$7.5M
D side
$2.7M · 36%
R side
$4.8M · 64%
Top spender
NRCC
For / against split
For Long $197.1K
Against Beutler $2.5M
Against Long $4.3M
For Beutler $541.8K
SpenderSideAmountShareTarget
NRCCR$3.1M42%against Carolyn Long
DCCCD$2.3M30%against Jaime Herrera Beutler
CONGRESSIONAL LEADERSHIP FUNDR$841.6K11%against Carolyn Long
THE GOVERNING MAJORITY FUNDR$277.5K4%against Carolyn Long
AMERICAN COLLEGE OF OB-GYNS PAC (OB-GYN PAC)R$232.7K3%for Jaime Herrera Beutler
CLEARPATH ACTION FUND, INC.R$199.9K3%for Jaime Herrera Beutler
PLANNED PARENTHOOD ALLIANCE PAC , SERVING WA, AK, ID, HI, IN, KYD$160.7K2%against Jaime Herrera Beutler
ONEAMERICA VOTESD$112.0K2%for Carolyn Long
DEFENDING MAIN STREET SUPERPAC INC.R$108.2K1%for Jaime Herrera Beutler
TOGETHER FOR PROGRESS 2020D$48.0K1%for Carolyn Long

Editorial ratings · 3 raters

Cook · Sabato · Inside Elections · 538 · DDHQ et al.
Lean R3
The Cook Political Report
Lean R
Nov 1
Inside Elections
Lean R
Oct 27
Sabato's Crystal Ball
Lean R
Nov 1

Demographic crosstabs

age · education · race · gender
No demographic crosstabs published for this race yet. Most pollsters release only topline numbers; subgroup breakdowns (age, education, race, gender) appear here when a pollster publishes them.
Rating timeline
Jun 22, 2026Lean Rmodel
May 11, 2026Likely Rmodel
Verification trail
Polls verified0 / 0deterministic
Polls flagged—none
Markets ingested0 platformsnone listed
FEC filingssyncedcommittee + IE · 2021-09-24
Endorsements—nothing to sync
News coverage< 5 articlesGoogle News
Method · bounds + percentage totals + date-order checks