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Races · house · 2020 · Washington
house · open seat

Rick Larsen vs Timothy Hazelo

← Washington houseWashington house →
Safe DD +42.2 forecast· 0 polls · 0 markets
Model's final pre-election call · win probabilitypoliagg-v34 · final pre-election call
99% Larsen (D)
1% Hazelo (R)
R+15R+5TIEDD+5D+15
Model's predicted final margin D +42.2 · 80% CI D+30.2 → D+54.2
Actual result D+26.4 · backtest (race already called)
Momentum
—
insufficient data
Tipping-point P
0.0%
Decisive for chamber control
Market · D-side
—
Cross-platform consensus
News articles · 30d
—
no recent coverage
Where this race stands
Verified

Likely D · model 99% D

No recent polls or markets for this race. PVI baseline (D+12) suggests Likely D.

The poliagg-v34 ensemble forecasts D+42.2 with an 80% CI ranging from D+30.2 (10th pctile) to D+54.2 (90th pctile), giving D a 99% chance of winning.

CITATIONS · likely-d
Forecast · poliagg-v34
Predicted final margin
D +42.2
80% CI: D +30.2 → D +54.2 · win prob 99%
R+60R+30TIEDD+30D+60
Quality · inputs
Data quality · medium
Polls used0
Days to electionpassed
Actual resultD+26.4
Residual σ6.00pt
Generated7/1/2026

Endorsements · 0 total

Source · Wikipedia · 2 candidates with no endorsements yet
DRick Larsen0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.
RTimothy Hazelo0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.

Money raised · own committees

FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · last filing 2020-11-20
Rick LarsenH0WA02080 ↗
Receipts
$1.3M
Disburse
$1.2M
Cash on hand
$329.2K
Debts
$0
Top industries
No industry data.
Top contributors
No contributor data.
Timothy HazeloH0WA02197 ↗
Receipts
$49.5K
Disburse
$49.3K
Cash on hand
$156.2
Debts
$18.7K
Top industries
No industry data.
Top contributors
No contributor data.

Outside spending · independent expenditures

FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · 24/48-hr IE reports
IE total
$2.4K
D side
$2.4K · 100%
R side
$0 · 0%
Top spender
FUSE WASHINGTON
For / against split
For Larsen $2.3K
Against Hazelo $115.05
SpenderSideAmountShareTarget
FUSE WASHINGTOND$785.5833%for Rick Larsen
TOGETHER WE THRIVED$75032%for Rick Larsen
PLANNED PARENTHOOD ALLIANCE PAC , SERVING WA, AK, ID, HI, IN, KYD$599.3725%for Rick Larsen
PLANNED PARENTHOOD VOTESD$230.110%for Rick Larsen
SIERRA CLUB INDEPENDENT ACTIOND$100%for Rick Larsen

Editorial ratings · 3 raters

Cook · Sabato · Inside Elections · 538 · DDHQ et al.
Safe D3
The Cook Political Report
Safe D
Nov 1
Inside Elections
Safe D
Oct 27
Sabato's Crystal Ball
Safe D
Nov 1

Demographic crosstabs

age · education · race · gender
No demographic crosstabs published for this race yet. Most pollsters release only topline numbers; subgroup breakdowns (age, education, race, gender) appear here when a pollster publishes them.
Rating timeline
May 11, 2026Safe Dmodel
Verification trail
Polls verified0 / 0deterministic
Polls flagged—none
Markets ingested0 platformsnone listed
FEC filingssyncedcommittee + IE · 2020-11-20
Endorsements—nothing to sync
News coverage< 5 articlesGoogle News
Method · bounds + percentage totals + date-order checks