Races · house · 2020 · Virginia

house · open seat

Abigail Spanberger vs WPA Intelligence

← Virginia house Virginia house →

Likely DD +12.5 forecast· 0 polls · 0 markets

Model's final pre-election call · win probabilitypoliagg-v34 · final pre-election call
98% Spanberger (D)
2% Intelligence (R)
Win probability
Abigail Spanberger98% (D)
WPA Intelligence2% (R)
Modelpoliagg-v34 · final pre-election call
Chance of winning across many simulations of the race — not projected vote share.
R+15R+5TIEDD+5D+15
Predicted margin
Point estimateD +12.5
80% CID+0.5 → D+24.5
The model’s central margin (D-positive) with its 80% interval — the shaded band on the scale.
Model's predicted final margin D +12.5 · 80% CI D+0.5 → D+24.5
Actual result D+1.8 · backtest (race already called)

Momentum

—

insufficient data

Tipping-point P

0.0%

Decisive for chamber control

Market · D-side

—

Cross-platform consensus

News articles · 30d

—

no recent coverage

Where this race stands

Verified

Tilt D · model 98% D

No recent polls or markets for this race. PVI baseline (D+2) suggests Tilt D.

The poliagg-v34 ensemble forecasts D+12.5 with an 80% CI ranging from tied (10th pctile) to D+24.5 (90th pctile), giving D a 98% chance of winning.

CITATIONS · tilt-d

Forecast · poliagg-v34

Predicted final margin

D +12.5

80% CI: D +0.5 → D +24.5 · win prob 98%

R+30R+15TIEDD+15D+30

Quality · inputs

Data quality · medium

Polls used	0
Days to election	passed
Actual result	D+1.8
Residual σ	6.00pt
Generated	7/1/2026

Endorsements · 0 total

Source · Wikipedia · 2 candidates with no endorsements yet

RWPA Intelligence0 endorsers

no endorsers yet

No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.

DAbigail Spanberger0 endorsers

no endorsers yet

No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.

Money raised · own committees

FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · last filing 2020-12-31

Abigail SpanbergerH8VA07094 ↗

Receipts

$8.5M

Disburse

$8.0M

Cash on hand

$582.1K

Debts

Top industries

No industry data.

Top contributors

No contributor data.

Outside spending · independent expenditures

FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · 24/48-hr IE reports

IE total

$17.5M

D side

$2.7M · 15%

R side

$14.8M · 85%

Top spender

CLUB FOR GROWTH ACTION

For / against split

For Spanberger $1.4M

Against Freitas $1.3M

Against Spanberger $12.2M

For Freitas $2.6M

Spender	Side	Amount	Share	Target
CLUB FOR GROWTH ACTION	R	$7.5M	43%	against Abigail Spanberger
CONGRESSIONAL LEADERSHIP FUND	R	$3.4M	19%	against Abigail Spanberger
AMERICANS FOR PROSPERITY ACTION, INC.(AFP ACTION)	R	$713.7K	4%	against Abigail Spanberger
BLACK PAC	D	$673.4K	4%	for Abigail Spanberger
CITIZENS FOR FREE ENTERPRISE	R	$365.2K	2%	against Abigail Spanberger

Editorial ratings · 3 raters

Cook · Sabato · Inside Elections · 538 · DDHQ et al.

Lean D2

Tilt D1

The Cook Political Report

Lean D

Oct 7

Inside Elections

Tilt D

Jun 1

Sabato's Crystal Ball

Lean D

Jul 1

Demographic crosstabs

age · education · race · gender

No demographic crosstabs published for this race yet. Most pollsters release only topline numbers; subgroup breakdowns (age, education, race, gender) appear here when a pollster publishes them.

Rating timeline

Jul 1, 2026Likely Dmodel

May 11, 2026Safe Dmodel

Verification trail

Polls verified0 / 0deterministic

Polls flagged—none

Markets ingested0 platformsnone listed

FEC filingssyncedcommittee + IE · 2020-12-31

Endorsements—nothing to sync

News coverage< 5 articlesGoogle News

Method · bounds + percentage totals + date-order checks