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Races · house · 2020 · Virginia
house · open seat

Cameron Webb vs Bob Good

← Virginia houseVirginia house →
Likely RR +7.0 forecast· 0 polls · 0 markets
Model's final pre-election call · win probabilitypoliagg-v34 · final pre-election call
12% Webb (D)
88% Good (R)
R+15R+5TIEDD+5D+15
Model's predicted final margin R +7.0 · 80% CI R+19.0 → D+5.0
Actual result R+5.1 · backtest (race already called)
Momentum
—
insufficient data
Tipping-point P
0.0%
Decisive for chamber control
Market · D-side
—
Cross-platform consensus
News articles · 30d
—
no recent coverage
Where this race stands
Verified

Lean R · model 88% R

No recent polls or markets for this race. PVI baseline (R+6) suggests Lean R.

The poliagg-v34 ensemble forecasts R+7.0 with an 80% CI ranging from R+19.0 (10th pctile) to D+5.0 (90th pctile), giving R a 88% chance of winning.

CITATIONS · lean-r
Forecast · poliagg-v34
Predicted final margin
R +7.0
80% CI: R +19.0 → D +5.0 · win prob 12%
R+30R+15TIEDD+15D+30
Quality · inputs
Data quality · medium
Polls used0
Days to electionpassed
Actual resultR+5.1
Residual σ6.00pt
Generated7/1/2026

Endorsements · 0 total

Source · Wikipedia · 2 candidates with no endorsements yet
RBob Good0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.
DCameron Webb0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.

Money raised · own committees

FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · last filing 2020-11-20
Bob GoodH0VA05160 ↗
Receipts
$1.4M
Disburse
$1.3M
Cash on hand
$50.3K
Debts
$0
Top industries
No industry data.
Top contributors
No contributor data.
Cameron WebbH0VA05145 ↗
Receipts
$5.8M
Disburse
$5.8M
Cash on hand
$5.0K
Debts
$0
Top industries
No industry data.
Top contributors
No contributor data.

Outside spending · independent expenditures

FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · 24/48-hr IE reports
IE total
$21.9M
D side
$14.5M · 66%
R side
$7.4M · 34%
Top spender
HOUSE MAJORITY PAC
For / against split
For Webb $789.7K
Against Good $13.7M
Against Webb $6.8M
For Good $532.5K
SpenderSideAmountShareTarget
HOUSE MAJORITY PACD$8.8M40%against Bob Good
NRCCR$4.0M18%against Cameron Webb
314 ACTION FUNDD$3.6M16%against Bob Good
CONGRESSIONAL LEADERSHIP FUNDR$2.8M13%against Cameron Webb
DCCCD$1.3M6%against Bob Good
CONGRESSIONAL BLACK CAUCUS PACD$388.6K2%for Cameron Webb
FEDUP POLITICAL ACTION COMMITTEE AKA FEDUP PACR$249.6K1%for Bob Good
BLACK PACD$216.6K1%for Cameron Webb
GUN OWNERS OF AMERICA, INC.R$176.3K1%for Bob Good
THE COLLECTIVE SUPER PACD$92.3K0%for Cameron Webb

Editorial ratings · 3 raters

Cook · Sabato · Inside Elections · 538 · DDHQ et al.
Tossup2
Lean R1
The Cook Political Report
Tossup
Sep 16
Inside Elections
Tossup
Oct 27
Sabato's Crystal Ball
Lean R
Nov 1

Demographic crosstabs

age · education · race · gender
No demographic crosstabs published for this race yet. Most pollsters release only topline numbers; subgroup breakdowns (age, education, race, gender) appear here when a pollster publishes them.
Rating timeline
May 11, 2026Likely Rmodel
Verification trail
Polls verified0 / 0deterministic
Polls flagged—none
Markets ingested0 platformsnone listed
FEC filingssyncedcommittee + IE · 2020-11-20
Endorsements—nothing to sync
News coverage< 5 articlesGoogle News
Method · bounds + percentage totals + date-order checks