Races · house · 2020 · Virginia

house · open seat

Donald McEachin vs Leon Benjamin

← Virginia house Virginia house →

Safe DD +44.2 forecast· 0 polls · 0 markets

Model's final pre-election call · win probabilitypoliagg-v34 · final pre-election call
99% McEachin (D)
1% Benjamin (R)
Win probability
Donald McEachin99% (D)
Leon Benjamin1% (R)
Modelpoliagg-v34 · final pre-election call
Chance of winning across many simulations of the race — not projected vote share.
R+15R+5TIEDD+5D+15
Predicted margin
Point estimateD +44.2
80% CID+32.2 → D+56.2
The model’s central margin (D-positive) with its 80% interval — the shaded band on the scale.
Model's predicted final margin D +44.2 · 80% CI D+32.2 → D+56.2
Actual result D+23.4 · backtest (race already called)

Momentum

—

insufficient data

Tipping-point P

0.0%

Decisive for chamber control

Market · D-side

—

Cross-platform consensus

News articles · 30d

—

no recent coverage

Where this race stands

Verified

Safe D · model 99% D

No recent polls or markets for this race. PVI baseline (D+17) suggests Safe D.

The poliagg-v34 ensemble forecasts D+44.2 with an 80% CI ranging from D+32.2 (10th pctile) to D+56.2 (90th pctile), giving D a 99% chance of winning.

CITATIONS · safe-d

Forecast · poliagg-v34

Predicted final margin

D +44.2

80% CI: D +32.2 → D +56.2 · win prob 99%

R+60R+30TIEDD+30D+60

Quality · inputs

Data quality · medium

Polls used	0
Days to election	passed
Actual result	D+23.4
Residual σ	6.00pt
Generated	7/1/2026

Endorsements · 0 total

Source · Wikipedia · 2 candidates with no endorsements yet

DDonald McEachin0 endorsers

no endorsers yet

No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.

RLeon Benjamin0 endorsers

no endorsers yet

No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.

Money raised · own committees

FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · last filing 2020-11-20

Leon BenjaminH0VA04064 ↗

Receipts

$546.6K

Disburse

$524.7K

Cash on hand

$21.9K

Debts

Top industries

No industry data.

Top contributors

No contributor data.

Donald McEachinH6VA04061 ↗

Receipts

$986.4K

Disburse

$988.8K

Cash on hand

$209.1K

Debts

Top industries

No industry data.

Top contributors

No contributor data.

Outside spending · independent expenditures

FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · 24/48-hr IE reports

IE total

$54.3K

D side

$994.09 · 2%

R side

$53.3K · 98%

Top spender

ELBERT GUILLORY'S A…

For / against split

For McEachin $879.04

Against Benjamin $115.05

For Benjamin $53.3K

Spender	Side	Amount	Share	Target
ELBERT GUILLORY'S AMERICA	R	$36.5K	67%	for Leon Benjamin
BLACK AMERICANS TO RE-ELECT THE PRESIDENT	R	$13.1K	24%	for Leon Benjamin
THE FAMILY FOUNDATION ACTION	R	$3.7K	7%	for Leon Benjamin
TOGETHER WE THRIVE	D	$750	1%	for Donald McEachin
PLANNED PARENTHOOD VOTES	D	$230.1	0%	against Leon Benjamin
SIERRA CLUB INDEPENDENT ACTION	D	$10	0%	for Donald McEachin
ENVIRONMENT AMERICA ACTION FUND	D	$3.99	0%	for Donald McEachin

Editorial ratings · 3 raters

Cook · Sabato · Inside Elections · 538 · DDHQ et al.

Safe D3

The Cook Political Report

Safe D

Jul 1

Inside Elections

Safe D

Jun 1

Sabato's Crystal Ball

Safe D

Jul 1

Demographic crosstabs

age · education · race · gender

No demographic crosstabs published for this race yet. Most pollsters release only topline numbers; subgroup breakdowns (age, education, race, gender) appear here when a pollster publishes them.

Rating timeline

May 11, 2026Safe Dmodel

Verification trail

Polls verified0 / 0deterministic

Polls flagged—none

Markets ingested0 platformsnone listed

FEC filingssyncedcommittee + IE · 2020-11-20

Endorsements—nothing to sync

News coverage< 5 articlesGoogle News

Method · bounds + percentage totals + date-order checks