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Races · house · 2020 · Virginia
house · open seat

Jennifer Wexton vs Aliscia Andrews

← Virginia houseVirginia house →
Safe DD +24.8 forecast· 0 polls · 0 markets
Model's final pre-election call · win probabilitypoliagg-v34 · final pre-election call
99% Wexton (D)
1% Andrews (R)
R+15R+5TIEDD+5D+15
Model's predicted final margin D +24.8 · 80% CI D+12.8 → D+36.8
Actual result D+13.1 · backtest (race already called)
Momentum
—
insufficient data
Tipping-point P
0.0%
Decisive for chamber control
Market · D-side
—
Cross-platform consensus
News articles · 30d
—
no recent coverage
Where this race stands
Verified

Lean D · model 99% D

No recent polls or markets for this race. PVI baseline (D+6) suggests Lean D.

The poliagg-v34 ensemble forecasts D+24.8 with an 80% CI ranging from D+12.8 (10th pctile) to D+36.8 (90th pctile), giving D a 99% chance of winning.

CITATIONS · lean-d
Forecast · poliagg-v34
Predicted final margin
D +24.8
80% CI: D +12.8 → D +36.8 · win prob 99%
R+45R+23TIEDD+23D+45
Quality · inputs
Data quality · medium
Polls used0
Days to electionpassed
Actual resultD+13.1
Residual σ6.00pt
Generated7/1/2026

Endorsements · 0 total

Source · Wikipedia · 2 candidates with no endorsements yet
DJennifer Wexton0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.
RAliscia Andrews0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.

Money raised · own committees

FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · last filing 2020-11-20
Aliscia AndrewsH0VA10186 ↗
Receipts
$1.6M
Disburse
$1.4M
Cash on hand
$158.1K
Debts
$63.58
Top industries
No industry data.
Top contributors
No contributor data.
Jennifer WextonH8VA10106 ↗
Receipts
$4.0M
Disburse
$1.9M
Cash on hand
$2.1M
Debts
$0
Top industries
No industry data.
Top contributors
No contributor data.

Outside spending · independent expenditures

FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · 24/48-hr IE reports
IE total
$23.1K
D side
$8.2K · 35%
R side
$15.0K · 65%
Top spender
THE GUARDIAN FUND
For / against split
For Wexton $8.1K
Against Andrews $115.05
Against Wexton $1.5K
For Andrews $13.5K
SpenderSideAmountShareTarget
THE GUARDIAN FUNDR$13.9K60%for Aliscia Andrews
AMERICAN MAJORITY ACTION INC.R$4.5K20%for Aliscia Andrews
SERVICE MATTERS PACR$2.0K9%for Aliscia Andrews
SUBURBAN VIRGINIA REPUBLICAN COALITION (SUV GOP)R$1.5K6%against Jennifer Wexton
TOGETHER WE THRIVED$7503%for Jennifer Wexton
LOUDOUN COUNTY DEMOCRATIC COMMITTEED$2421%for Jennifer Wexton
PLANNED PARENTHOOD VOTESD$230.11%against Aliscia Andrews

Editorial ratings · 3 raters

Cook · Sabato · Inside Elections · 538 · DDHQ et al.
Safe D3
The Cook Political Report
Safe D
Jul 16
Inside Elections
Safe D
Jun 1
Sabato's Crystal Ball
Safe D
Jul 1

Demographic crosstabs

age · education · race · gender
No demographic crosstabs published for this race yet. Most pollsters release only topline numbers; subgroup breakdowns (age, education, race, gender) appear here when a pollster publishes them.
Rating timeline
May 11, 2026Safe Dmodel
Verification trail
Polls verified0 / 0deterministic
Polls flagged—none
Markets ingested0 platformsnone listed
FEC filingssyncedcommittee + IE · 2020-11-20
Endorsements—nothing to sync
News coverage< 5 articlesGoogle News
Method · bounds + percentage totals + date-order checks