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Races · house · 2020 · Texas
house · open seat

Lizzie Pannill Fletcher vs Wesley Hunt

← Texas houseTexas house →
Safe DD +28.9 forecast· 0 polls · 0 markets
Model's final pre-election call · win probabilitypoliagg-v34 · final pre-election call
99% Fletcher (D)
1% Hunt (R)
R+15R+5TIEDD+5D+15
Model's predicted final margin D +28.9 · 80% CI D+16.9 → D+40.9
Actual result Lizzie Fletcher +3.4 · backtest (race already called)
Momentum
—
insufficient data
Tipping-point P
0.0%
Decisive for chamber control
Market · D-side
—
Cross-platform consensus
News articles · 30d
—
no recent coverage
Where this race stands
Verified

Likely D · model 99% D

No recent polls or markets for this race. PVI baseline (D+12) suggests Likely D.

The poliagg-v34 ensemble forecasts D+28.9 with an 80% CI ranging from D+16.9 (10th pctile) to D+40.9 (90th pctile), giving D a 99% chance of winning.

CITATIONS · likely-d
Forecast · poliagg-v34
Predicted final margin
D +28.9
80% CI: D +16.9 → D +40.9 · win prob 99%
R+45R+23TIEDD+23D+45
Quality · inputs
Data quality · medium
Polls used0
Days to electionpassed
Actual resultLizzie Fletcher +3.4
Residual σ6.00pt
Generated7/1/2026

Endorsements · 0 total

Source · Wikipedia · 3 candidates with no endorsements yet
DLizzie Pannill Fletcher0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.
RWesley Hunt0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.
LShawn Kelly0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.

Money raised · own committees

FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · last filing 2020-12-31
Lizzie Pannill FletcherH8TX07140 ↗
Receipts
$6.4M
Disburse
$6.4M
Cash on hand
$61.1K
Debts
$0
Top industries
No industry data.
Top contributors
No contributor data.
Shawn KellyOWN COMMITTEE
Receipts
$0
Disburse
$0
Cash on hand
$0
Debts
$0
Top industries
No industry data.
Top contributors
No contributor data.

Outside spending · independent expenditures

FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · 24/48-hr IE reports
IE total
$2.5M
D side
$12.8K · 1%
R side
$2.5M · 99%
Top spender
CONGRESSIONAL LEADE…
For / against split
For Fletcher $12.8K
Against Fletcher $2.5M
SpenderSideAmountShareTarget
CONGRESSIONAL LEADERSHIP FUNDR$1.2M46%against Lizzie Pannill Fletcher
WOMEN SPEAK OUT PACR$711.0K28%against Lizzie Pannill Fletcher
VALOR AMERICAR$384.4K15%against Lizzie Pannill Fletcher
AMERICANS FOR PROSPERITY ACTION, INC.(AFP ACTION)R$261.4K10%against Lizzie Pannill Fletcher
UNITED WE DREAM ACTION PACD$11.1K0%for Lizzie Pannill Fletcher

Editorial ratings · 1 raters

Cook · Sabato · Inside Elections · 538 · DDHQ et al.
Likely D1
The Cook Political Report
Likely D
Nov 1

Demographic crosstabs

age · education · race · gender
No demographic crosstabs published for this race yet. Most pollsters release only topline numbers; subgroup breakdowns (age, education, race, gender) appear here when a pollster publishes them.
Rating timeline
May 11, 2026Safe Dmodel
Verification trail
Polls verified0 / 0deterministic
Polls flagged—none
Markets ingested0 platformsnone listed
FEC filingssyncedcommittee + IE · 2020-12-31
Endorsements—nothing to sync
News coverage< 5 articlesGoogle News
Method · bounds + percentage totals + date-order checks