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Races · house · 2020 · Texas
house · open seat

Stephen Daniel vs Ron Wright

← Texas houseTexas house →
Safe RR +19.2 forecast· 0 polls · 0 markets
Model's final pre-election call · win probabilitypoliagg-v34 · final pre-election call
1% Daniel (D)
99% Wright (R)
R+15R+5TIEDD+5D+15
Model's predicted final margin R +19.2 · 80% CI R+31.2 → R+7.2
Actual result R+8.8 · backtest (race already called)
Momentum
—
insufficient data
Tipping-point P
0.0%
Decisive for chamber control
Market · D-side
—
Cross-platform consensus
News articles · 30d
—
no recent coverage
Where this race stands
Verified

Likely R · model 99% R

No recent polls or markets for this race. PVI baseline (R+14) suggests Likely R.

The poliagg-v34 ensemble forecasts R+19.2 with an 80% CI ranging from R+31.2 (10th pctile) to R+7.2 (90th pctile), giving R a 99% chance of winning.

CITATIONS · likely-r
Forecast · poliagg-v34
Predicted final margin
R +19.2
80% CI: R +31.2 → R +7.2 · win prob 1%
R+45R+23TIEDD+23D+45
Quality · inputs
Data quality · medium
Polls used0
Days to electionpassed
Actual resultR+8.8
Residual σ6.00pt
Generated7/1/2026

Endorsements · 0 total

Source · Wikipedia · 2 candidates with no endorsements yet
RRon Wright0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.
DStephen Daniel0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.

Money raised · own committees

FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · last filing 2020-11-20
Stephen DanielH0TX06099 ↗
Receipts
$681.8K
Disburse
$679.0K
Cash on hand
$2.8K
Debts
$0
Top industries
No industry data.
Top contributors
No contributor data.
Ron WrightH8TX06233 ↗
Receipts
$923.5K
Disburse
$919.1K
Cash on hand
$6.8K
Debts
$0
Top industries
No industry data.
Top contributors
No contributor data.

Outside spending · independent expenditures

FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · 24/48-hr IE reports
IE total
$517.9K
D side
$1.1K · 0%
R side
$516.8K · 100%
Top spender
CLUB FOR GROWTH ACTION
For / against split
For Daniel $247.21
Against Wright $865.05
Against Daniel $499.4K
For Wright $17.5K
SpenderSideAmountShareTarget
CLUB FOR GROWTH ACTIONR$499.4K96%against Stephen Daniel
HOUSE FREEDOM FUNDR$6.3K1%for Ron Wright
CLUB FOR GROWTH PACR$5.6K1%for Ron Wright
NATIONAL RIFLE ASSOCIATION OF AMERICA POLITICAL VICTORY FUNDR$3.7K1%for Ron Wright
COMMITTEE FOR DEFENDING AMERICAN VALUESR$1.7K0%for Ron Wright
TOGETHER WE THRIVED$7500%against Ron Wright
PLANNED PARENTHOOD VOTESD$237.210%for Stephen Daniel
SIERRA CLUB INDEPENDENT ACTIOND$100%for Stephen Daniel

Editorial ratings · 1 raters

Cook · Sabato · Inside Elections · 538 · DDHQ et al.
Likely R1
The Cook Political Report
Likely R
Nov 1

Demographic crosstabs

age · education · race · gender
No demographic crosstabs published for this race yet. Most pollsters release only topline numbers; subgroup breakdowns (age, education, race, gender) appear here when a pollster publishes them.
Rating timeline
May 11, 2026Safe Rmodel
Verification trail
Polls verified0 / 0deterministic
Polls flagged—none
Markets ingested0 platformsnone listed
FEC filingssyncedcommittee + IE · 2020-11-20
Endorsements—nothing to sync
News coverage< 5 articlesGoogle News
Method · bounds + percentage totals + date-order checks