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Races · house · 2020 · Texas
house · open seat

Colin Allred vs Genevieve Collins

← Texas houseTexas house →
Safe DD +29.9 forecast· 0 polls · 0 markets
Model's final pre-election call · win probabilitypoliagg-v34 · final pre-election call
99% Allred (D)
1% Collins (R)
R+15R+5TIEDD+5D+15
Model's predicted final margin D +29.9 · 80% CI D+17.9 → D+41.9
Actual result D+6.0 · backtest (race already called)
Momentum
—
insufficient data
Tipping-point P
0.0%
Decisive for chamber control
Market · D-side
—
Cross-platform consensus
News articles · 30d
—
no recent coverage
Where this race stands
Verified

Likely D · model 99% D

No recent polls or markets for this race. PVI baseline (D+13) suggests Likely D.

The poliagg-v34 ensemble forecasts D+29.9 with an 80% CI ranging from D+17.9 (10th pctile) to D+41.9 (90th pctile), giving D a 99% chance of winning.

CITATIONS · likely-d
Forecast · poliagg-v34
Predicted final margin
D +29.9
80% CI: D +17.9 → D +41.9 · win prob 99%
R+45R+23TIEDD+23D+45
Quality · inputs
Data quality · medium
Polls used0
Days to electionpassed
Actual resultD+6.0
Residual σ6.00pt
Generated7/1/2026

Endorsements · 0 total

Source · Wikipedia · 4 candidates with no endorsements yet
DColin Allred0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.
RGenevieve Collins0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.
LChristy Mowrey Peterson0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.
IJason Sigmon0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.

Money raised · own committees

FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · last filing 2020-12-31
Genevieve CollinsH0TX32087 ↗
Receipts
$6.0M
Disburse
$6.0M
Cash on hand
$7.8K
Debts
$500.0K
Top industries
No industry data.
Top contributors
No contributor data.
Jason SigmonOWN COMMITTEE
Receipts
$11.8K
Disburse
$11.7K
Cash on hand
$153.86
Debts
$0
Top industries
No industry data.
Top contributors
No contributor data.

Outside spending · independent expenditures

FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · 24/48-hr IE reports
IE total
$1.3M
D side
$203.8 · 0%
R side
$1.3M · 100%
Top spender
AMERICANS FOR PROSP…
For / against split
Against Collins $203.8
For Collins $1.3M
SpenderSideAmountShareTarget
AMERICANS FOR PROSPERITY ACTION, INC.(AFP ACTION)R$829.8K62%for Genevieve Collins
CONSERVATIVES ACTING TOGETHER POLITICAL ACTION COMMITTEE (CATPAC)R$448.9K34%for Genevieve Collins
WOMEN SPEAK OUT PACR$51.2K4%for Genevieve Collins
NATIONAL RIFLE ASSOCIATION OF AMERICA POLITICAL VICTORY FUNDR$3.9K0%for Genevieve Collins
COMMITTEE FOR DEFENDING AMERICAN VALUESR$1.5K0%for Genevieve Collins

Editorial ratings · 1 raters

Cook · Sabato · Inside Elections · 538 · DDHQ et al.
Likely D1
The Cook Political Report
Likely D
Nov 1

Demographic crosstabs

age · education · race · gender
No demographic crosstabs published for this race yet. Most pollsters release only topline numbers; subgroup breakdowns (age, education, race, gender) appear here when a pollster publishes them.
Rating timeline
May 11, 2026Safe Dmodel
Verification trail
Polls verified0 / 0deterministic
Polls flagged—none
Markets ingested0 platformsnone listed
FEC filingssyncedcommittee + IE · 2020-12-31
Endorsements—nothing to sync
News coverage< 5 articlesGoogle News
Method · bounds + percentage totals + date-order checks