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Races · house · 2020 · Texas
house · open seat

Lulu Seikaly vs Van Taylor

← Texas houseTexas house →
Safe RR +17.4 forecast· 0 polls · 0 markets
Model's final pre-election call · win probabilitypoliagg-v34 · final pre-election call
1% Seikaly (D)
99% Taylor (R)
R+15R+5TIEDD+5D+15
Model's predicted final margin R +17.4 · 80% CI R+29.4 → R+5.4
Actual result R+12.2 · backtest (race already called)
Momentum
—
insufficient data
Tipping-point P
0.0%
Decisive for chamber control
Market · D-side
—
Cross-platform consensus
News articles · 30d
—
no recent coverage
Where this race stands
Verified

Likely R · model 99% R

No recent polls or markets for this race. PVI baseline (R+10) suggests Likely R.

The poliagg-v34 ensemble forecasts R+17.4 with an 80% CI ranging from R+29.4 (10th pctile) to R+5.4 (90th pctile), giving R a 99% chance of winning.

CITATIONS · likely-r
Forecast · poliagg-v34
Predicted final margin
R +17.4
80% CI: R +29.4 → R +5.4 · win prob 1%
R+30R+15TIEDD+15D+30
Quality · inputs
Data quality · medium
Polls used0
Days to electionpassed
Actual resultR+12.2
Residual σ6.00pt
Generated7/1/2026

Endorsements · 0 total

Source · Wikipedia · 3 candidates with no endorsements yet
RVan Taylor0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.
DLulu Seikaly0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.
LChristopher Claytor0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.

Money raised · own committees

FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · last filing 2020-11-20
Van TaylorH8TX03123 ↗
Receipts
$3.1M
Disburse
$3.3M
Cash on hand
$22.5K
Debts
$518.8K
Top industries
No industry data.
Top contributors
No contributor data.
Lulu SeikalyH0TX03120 ↗
Receipts
$1.7M
Disburse
$1.7M
Cash on hand
$341.79
Debts
$0
Top industries
No industry data.
Top contributors
No contributor data.

Outside spending · independent expenditures

FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · 24/48-hr IE reports
IE total
$1.2M
D side
$11.8K · 1%
R side
$1.1M · 99%
Top spender
WITH HONOR FUND, INC.
For / against split
For Seikaly $10.9K
Against Taylor $865.05
For Taylor $1.1M
SpenderSideAmountShareTarget
WITH HONOR FUND, INC.R$1.1M93%for Van Taylor
SEAL PAC SUPPORTING ELECTING AMERICAN LEADERS PACR$50.0K4%for Van Taylor
NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS POLITICAL ACTION COMMITTEER$11.2K1%for Van Taylor
FREEDOMWORKS FOR AMERICAR$10.0K1%for Van Taylor
HER TIME PACD$10.0K1%for Lulu Seikaly
NATIONAL RIFLE ASSOCIATION OF AMERICA POLITICAL VICTORY FUNDR$1.5K0%for Van Taylor
PROGRESS TEXASD$505.490%for Lulu Seikaly
PLANNED PARENTHOOD VOTESD$237.210%for Lulu Seikaly
EVERYTOWN FOR GUN SAFETY VICTORY FUND (EVERYTOWN VICTORY FUND)D$138.240%for Lulu Seikaly
SIERRA CLUB INDEPENDENT ACTIOND$100%for Lulu Seikaly

Editorial ratings · 1 raters

Cook · Sabato · Inside Elections · 538 · DDHQ et al.
Lean R1
The Cook Political Report
Lean R
Nov 1

Demographic crosstabs

age · education · race · gender
No demographic crosstabs published for this race yet. Most pollsters release only topline numbers; subgroup breakdowns (age, education, race, gender) appear here when a pollster publishes them.
Rating timeline
May 11, 2026Safe Rmodel
Verification trail
Polls verified0 / 0deterministic
Polls flagged—none
Markets ingested0 platformsnone listed
FEC filingssyncedcommittee + IE · 2020-11-20
Endorsements—nothing to sync
News coverage< 5 articlesGoogle News
Method · bounds + percentage totals + date-order checks