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Races · house · 2020 · Texas
house · open seat

Henry Cuellar vs Sandra Whitten

← Texas houseTexas house →
Safe DD +32.2 forecast· 0 polls · 0 markets
Model's final pre-election call · win probabilitypoliagg-v34 · final pre-election call
99% Cuellar (D)
1% Whitten (R)
R+15R+5TIEDD+5D+15
Model's predicted final margin D +32.2 · 80% CI D+20.2 → D+44.2
Actual result D+19.3 · backtest (race already called)
Momentum
—
insufficient data
Tipping-point P
0.0%
Decisive for chamber control
Market · D-side
—
Cross-platform consensus
News articles · 30d
—
no recent coverage
Where this race stands
Verified

Tilt R · model 99% D

No recent polls or markets for this race. PVI baseline (R+2) suggests Tilt R.

The poliagg-v34 ensemble forecasts D+32.2 with an 80% CI ranging from D+20.2 (10th pctile) to D+44.2 (90th pctile), giving D a 99% chance of winning.

CITATIONS · tilt-r
Forecast · poliagg-v34
Predicted final margin
D +32.2
80% CI: D +20.2 → D +44.2 · win prob 99%
R+45R+23TIEDD+23D+45
Quality · inputs
Data quality · medium
Polls used0
Days to electionpassed
Actual resultD+19.3
Residual σ6.00pt
Generated7/1/2026

Endorsements · 0 total

Source · Wikipedia · 3 candidates with no endorsements yet
DHenry Cuellar0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.
RSandra Whitten0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.
LBekah Congdon0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.

Money raised · own committees

FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · last filing 2020-10-01
Henry CuellarH2TX23082 ↗
Receipts
$2.8M
Disburse
$3.7M
Cash on hand
$1.6M
Debts
$0
Top industries
No industry data.
Top contributors
No contributor data.
Sandra WhittenOWN COMMITTEE
Receipts
$24.8K
Disburse
$27.4K
Cash on hand
$-1,769.92
Debts
$30.7K
Top industries
No industry data.
Top contributors
No contributor data.

Outside spending · independent expenditures

FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · 24/48-hr IE reports
IE total
$3.4M
D side
$879.3K · 26%
R side
$2.5M · 74%
Top spender
TEXAS FORWARD
For / against split
For Cuellar $879.3K
Against Cuellar $2.5M
SpenderSideAmountShareTarget
TEXAS FORWARDR$2.5M74%against Henry Cuellar
VOTER PROTECTION PROJECTD$574.0K17%for Henry Cuellar
AMERICANS FOR PROSPERITY ACTION, INC.(AFP ACTION)D$210.7K6%for Henry Cuellar
NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS POLITICAL ACTION COMMITTEED$93.9K3%for Henry Cuellar
TOGETHER WE THRIVED$7500%for Henry Cuellar

Editorial ratings · 3 raters

Cook · Sabato · Inside Elections · 538 · DDHQ et al.
Safe D3
The Cook Political Report
Safe D
Jul 1
FiveThirtyEight
Safe D
Oct 12
Inside Elections
Safe D
Jun 1

Demographic crosstabs

age · education · race · gender
No demographic crosstabs published for this race yet. Most pollsters release only topline numbers; subgroup breakdowns (age, education, race, gender) appear here when a pollster publishes them.
Rating timeline
May 11, 2026Safe Dmodel
Verification trail
Polls verified0 / 0deterministic
Polls flagged—none
Markets ingested0 platformsnone listed
FEC filingssyncedcommittee + IE · 2020-10-01
Endorsements—nothing to sync
News coverage< 5 articlesGoogle News
Method · bounds + percentage totals + date-order checks