NonpartisanIndependent, data-first coverage of US elections — polls, forecasts, and prediction markets, refreshed daily.Updated daily.What's new ↗·Methodology·Send feedback
Races · house · 2020 · Texas
house · open seat

Julie Oliver vs Roger Williams

← Texas houseTexas house →
Safe RR +29.2 forecast· 0 polls · 0 markets
Model's final pre-election call · win probabilitypoliagg-v34 · final pre-election call
1% Oliver (D)
99% Williams (R)
R+15R+5TIEDD+5D+15
Model's predicted final margin R +29.2 · 80% CI R+41.2 → R+17.2
Actual result R+13.8 · backtest (race already called)
Momentum
—
insufficient data
Tipping-point P
0.0%
Decisive for chamber control
Market · D-side
—
Cross-platform consensus
News articles · 30d
—
no recent coverage
Where this race stands
Verified

Safe R · model 99% R

No recent polls or markets for this race. PVI baseline (R+18) suggests Safe R.

The poliagg-v34 ensemble forecasts R+29.2 with an 80% CI ranging from R+41.2 (10th pctile) to R+17.2 (90th pctile), giving R a 99% chance of winning.

CITATIONS · safe-r
Forecast · poliagg-v34
Predicted final margin
R +29.2
80% CI: R +41.2 → R +17.2 · win prob 1%
R+45R+23TIEDD+23D+45
Quality · inputs
Data quality · medium
Polls used0
Days to electionpassed
Actual resultR+13.8
Residual σ6.00pt
Generated7/1/2026

Endorsements · 0 total

Source · Wikipedia · 2 candidates with no endorsements yet
RRoger Williams0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.
DJulie Oliver0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.

Money raised · own committees

FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · last filing 2020-11-20
Julie OliverH8TX25159 ↗
Receipts
$2.2M
Disburse
$2.2M
Cash on hand
$14.0K
Debts
$2.6K
Top industries
No industry data.
Top contributors
No contributor data.
Roger WilliamsH2TX33040 ↗
Receipts
$2.4M
Disburse
$3.4M
Cash on hand
$11.5K
Debts
$162.1K
Top industries
No industry data.
Top contributors
No contributor data.

Outside spending · independent expenditures

FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · 24/48-hr IE reports
IE total
$535.2K
D side
$9.4K · 2%
R side
$525.8K · 98%
Top spender
DEFEND TEXAS FUND
For / against split
For Oliver $4.2K
Against Williams $5.2K
Against Oliver $518.0K
For Williams $7.7K
SpenderSideAmountShareTarget
DEFEND TEXAS FUNDR$518.0K97%against Julie Oliver
FLIP THE WESTD$6.5K1%against Roger Williams
NATIONAL RIFLE ASSOCIATION OF AMERICA POLITICAL VICTORY FUNDR$5.8K1%for Roger Williams
COMMITTEE FOR DEFENDING AMERICAN VALUESR$1.7K0%for Roger Williams
BLUE AMERICA PAC INDEPENDENT EXPENDITURE COMMITTEED$964.680%for Julie Oliver
TOGETHER WE THRIVED$7500%against Roger Williams
PROGRESS TEXASD$682.120%for Julie Oliver
PLANNED PARENTHOOD VOTESD$237.210%for Julie Oliver
TEXAS ALLIANCE FOR LIFE FED PACR$158.080%for Roger Williams

Editorial ratings · 1 raters

Cook · Sabato · Inside Elections · 538 · DDHQ et al.
Likely R1
The Cook Political Report
Likely R
Nov 1

Demographic crosstabs

age · education · race · gender
No demographic crosstabs published for this race yet. Most pollsters release only topline numbers; subgroup breakdowns (age, education, race, gender) appear here when a pollster publishes them.
Rating timeline
May 11, 2026Safe Rmodel
Verification trail
Polls verified0 / 0deterministic
Polls flagged—none
Markets ingested0 platformsnone listed
FEC filingssyncedcommittee + IE · 2020-11-20
Endorsements—nothing to sync
News coverage< 5 articlesGoogle News
Method · bounds + percentage totals + date-order checks