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Races · house · 2020 · Texas
house · open seat

Candace Valenzuela vs Beth Van Duyne

← Texas houseTexas house →
Likely RR +5.8 forecast· 0 polls · 0 markets
Model's final pre-election call · win probabilitypoliagg-v34 · final pre-election call
17% Valenzuela (D)
83% Duyne (R)
R+15R+5TIEDD+5D+15
Model's predicted final margin R +5.8 · 80% CI R+17.8 → D+6.2
Actual result R+1.3 · backtest (race already called)
Momentum
—
insufficient data
Tipping-point P
0.0%
Decisive for chamber control
Market · D-side
—
Cross-platform consensus
News articles · 30d
—
no recent coverage
Where this race stands
Verified

Lean R · model 83% R

No recent polls or markets for this race. PVI baseline (R+7) suggests Lean R.

The poliagg-v34 ensemble forecasts R+5.8 with an 80% CI ranging from R+17.8 (10th pctile) to D+6.2 (90th pctile), giving R a 83% chance of winning.

CITATIONS · lean-r
Forecast · poliagg-v34
Predicted final margin
R +5.8
80% CI: R +17.8 → D +6.2 · win prob 17%
R+30R+15TIEDD+15D+30
Quality · inputs
Data quality · medium
Polls used0
Days to electionpassed
Actual resultR+1.3
Residual σ6.00pt
Generated7/1/2026

Endorsements · 0 total

Source · Wikipedia · 2 candidates with no endorsements yet
RBeth Van Duyne0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.
DCandace Valenzuela0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.

Money raised · own committees

FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · last filing 2020-11-23
Beth Van DuyneH0TX24209 ↗
Receipts
$3.4M
Disburse
$3.4M
Cash on hand
$68.4K
Debts
$125.5K
Top industries
No industry data.
Top contributors
No contributor data.
Candace ValenzuelaH0TX24175 ↗
Receipts
$4.9M
Disburse
$4.9M
Cash on hand
$12.0K
Debts
$0
Top industries
No industry data.
Top contributors
No contributor data.

Outside spending · independent expenditures

FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · 24/48-hr IE reports
IE total
$59.2M
D side
$36.9M · 62%
R side
$22.2M · 38%
Top spender
HOUSE MAJORITY PAC
For / against split
For Valenzuela $2.1M
Against Duyne $34.9M
Against Valenzuela $22.0M
For Duyne $290.1K
SpenderSideAmountShareTarget
HOUSE MAJORITY PACD$16.1M27%against Beth Van Duyne
NRCCR$15.7M26%against Candace Valenzuela
DCCCD$10.7M18%against Beth Van Duyne
CONGRESSIONAL LEADERSHIP FUNDR$5.3M9%against Candace Valenzuela
EVERYTOWN FOR GUN SAFETY VICTORY FUND (EVERYTOWN VICTORY FUND)D$4.6M8%against Beth Van Duyne
LCV VICTORY FUNDD$3.1M5%against Beth Van Duyne
CHC BOLD PACD$1.0M2%against Beth Van Duyne
WOMEN SPEAK OUT PACR$1.0M2%against Candace Valenzuela
CONGRESSIONAL BLACK CAUCUS PACD$471.2K1%for Candace Valenzuela

Editorial ratings · 1 raters

Cook · Sabato · Inside Elections · 538 · DDHQ et al.
Lean D1
The Cook Political Report
Lean D
Nov 1

Demographic crosstabs

age · education · race · gender
No demographic crosstabs published for this race yet. Most pollsters release only topline numbers; subgroup breakdowns (age, education, race, gender) appear here when a pollster publishes them.
Rating timeline
May 11, 2026Likely Rmodel
Verification trail
Polls verified0 / 0deterministic
Polls flagged—none
Markets ingested0 platformsnone listed
FEC filingssyncedcommittee + IE · 2020-11-23
Endorsements—nothing to sync
News coverage< 5 articlesGoogle News
Method · bounds + percentage totals + date-order checks